Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Evidence of fertility regulation among rural French villagers, 1749–1789

Prévention des naissances en France rurale, 1749–1789: Un modèle économétrique sur l'échelonnement des naissances (deuxième partie)

A sequential econometric model of birth-spacing behavior (Part 2)

  • Articles
  • Published:
European Journal of Population / Revue européenne de Démographie Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

The statistical results obtained in this second part form a strong case against the ‘natural fertility’ characterization of the demographic regime that prevailed in rural France immediately before the Revolution of 1789. There are clear indications that marital fertility was being regulated in congruence with the differential valuations placed upon children, according to their gender and age. A complex pattern is found in the non-biological responses of couples' fertility to both non-familial and familial experience of infant deaths, which take the form of ‘hoarding’ and ‘replacement effects’, respectively. Evidence is present bearing upon the suspected endogeneity of infant deaths, and its relationship to the adoption of preventive methods of limiting family size.

Résumé

Les résultats statistiques obtenus dans cette seconde partie, vont fortement à l'encontre de la th7`ese d'une ‘fécondité naturelle’, qui caractérisait le régime démographique prédominant en France rurale avant la Révolution de 1789. Il y a de claires indications de la régulation des naissances légitimes en conformité avec les valeurs différentielles placées sur les divers enfants, selon leur sexe et leur âge. Un modèle complexe apparaît dans les réponses non-biologiques de la fécondité des couples à l'expérience de la mortalité infantile tant hors de la famille que dans la famille, qui prend la forme respectivement d'effets d'‘accumulation’ et de ‘remplacement’. Des résultats sont présentés sur l'endogénéité attendue de la mortalité infantile, et ses relations avec l'adoption de méthodes préventives afin de limiter la taille des familles.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Ariès, Phillippe, 1965, Centuries of childhood: A social history of family life (Vintage Books, New York) (transl. R. Baldick from the original published in French as L'enfant et la vie familiale sous l'Ancien Régime (Paris, 1960)).

    Google Scholar 

  • Blayo, Y., 1975, Mouvement naturel de la population française de 1740 à 1829, Population (30e année, numéro special: Démographie historique), 15–64, Novembre.

  • Braun, Henry, 1980, Regression-like analysis of birth interval sequences, Demography 17, 207–233.

    Google Scholar 

  • Bulato, R.A. and R.D. Lee, eds., 1983, Determinants of fertility in developing countries, 2 vols. (Academic Press, New York).

    Google Scholar 

  • Casterline, J. and T.J. Trussell, 1980, Age at first birth: A cross-national comparison, Comparative Studies Series, World Fertility Survey (World Fertility Survey, London).

    Google Scholar 

  • Coale, Ansley J., 1985, The decline of fertility in Europe since the eighteenth century as a chapter in human demographic history, ch. 1, in: A.J. Coale and S.C. Watkins, eds., The decline of fertility in Europe (Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ).

    Google Scholar 

  • Coale, A.J. and P. Demeny, 1983, Regional model life tables and stable populations, 2nd ed. (Academic Press, New York).

    Google Scholar 

  • Coale, Ansley J. and James Trussell, 1974, Model fertility schedules: Variations in the age structure of childbearing in human populations, Population Index 44, 203–211.

    Google Scholar 

  • Crimmins, E.M., R.A. Easterlin, S.J. Jejeebhoy and K. Srinivasan, 1984, New perspectives on the demographic transition: A theoretical and empirical analysis of an Indian State, 1951–1975, Economic Development and Cultural Change 32, 227–253.

    Google Scholar 

  • David, Paul A. and Warren C. Sanderson, 1978, The effectiveness of nineteenth-century contraceptive practices: An application of microdemographic modeling approaches, in: International Economic History Association, Seventh International Economic History Congress: Papers on ‘B Themes’ (Edinburgh University Press, Edinburgh) 60–70.

    Google Scholar 

  • David, Paul A. and Warren C. Sanderson, 1985, Rudimentary contraceptive methods and the American transition to fertility control, 1955–1915, presented to N.B.E.R. Conference in Williamsburg, VA, March, 1984; in: S.L. Engerman and R.E. Gallman, eds., 1986, Long-term factors in American economic growth, (National Bureau of Economic Research Conference on Income and Wealth); Revised version appeared as Stanford Project on the history of fertility control working paper no. 15, May.

  • David, Paul A. and William Sundstrom, 1984, Intergenerational exchange, bargaining, and the demand for children in agrarian societies: A suggestion for household economics and historians of family and fertility, Stanford project on the history of fertility control working paper no. 12, April; paper presented at Population Association of America Meetings in Minneapolis, MN.

  • David, Paul A., Thomas A. Mroz and Kenneth W. Wachter, 1983, Fertility regulation in ‘natural fertility’ populations, paper presented at PAA Meetings in Pittsburgh, PA, April, Stanford University.

  • David, Paul A., Thomas A. Mroz and Kenneth W. Wachter, 1985, Rational strategies of birth-spacing and fertility regulation in rural France during the Ancien Régime, Stanford project on the history of fertility control working paper no. 14; presented at the PAA Workshop in Economic Demography in Boston, March.

  • D'Souza, S., 1974, Closed birth intervals: A data analytic study (New Delhi, Sterling Publications).

    Google Scholar 

  • Dupaquier, J. and M. Lachiver, 1969, Sur les débuts de la contraception en France ou les deux malthusianismes, Annales, E.S.C. 24, 1391–1406.

    Google Scholar 

  • Easterlin, R.A., 1978, The economics and sociology of fertility: A synthesis, in: C. Tilly, ed., Historical studies of changing fertility (Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ).

    Google Scholar 

  • Easterlin, R.A. and E.M. Crimmins, 1985, The fertility revolution: A supply-demand analysis (The University of Chicago Press, Chicago, IL).

    Google Scholar 

  • Flandrin, Jean-Louis, 1979, Families in former times: Kinship, household and sexuality (transl. Richard Southern) (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge).

    Google Scholar 

  • Fleury, M. and L. Henry, 1958, Pour connaître la population de la France depuis Louis XIV, Population 4, 663–686.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hajnal, John, 1982, Two kinds of preindustrial household formation systems, Population and Development Review 8, 449–494.

    Google Scholar 

  • Heckman, James and Burt Singer, 1984a, Econometric duration analysis, Journal of Econometrics 24, 63–122.

    Google Scholar 

  • Heckman, James and Burt Singer, 1984b, A method for minimizing the impact of distribution assumptions in econometric models for duration data. Econometrica 52, 271–320.

    Google Scholar 

  • Heckman, James and Robert Willis, 1975, Estimation of a Stochastic model of reproduction: An econometric approach, in: Nestor Terleckvj, ed., Household production and consumption (Columbia University Press, New York) 99–138.

    Google Scholar 

  • Heckman, James, V. Joseph Hotz and James R. Walker, 1985, The determinants of birth intervals: A multistate approach, unpublished manuscript, University of Chicago.

  • Henry, Louis, 1961, Some data on natural fertility, Eugenics Quarterly 8, 81–91.

    Google Scholar 

  • Henry, Louis, 1967, Manuel de démographie historique (Genève, Paris).

    Google Scholar 

  • Henry, Louis, 1980, Techniques d'analyse en démographie historique (Editions de l'Ined, Paris).

    Google Scholar 

  • Hotz, V.J. and Robert A. Miller, 1985, The economics of family planning, Carnegie-Mellon working paper no. 14-84-85.

  • Houdaille, Jacques, 1979, La mortalité des enfants en Europe avant le XIXe siècle, ch. 3, in: La mortalité des enfants dans le monde et dans l'historie (Ordina Editions, Liege).

    Google Scholar 

  • Hunt, David, 1970, Parents and children in history: The Psychology of family life in early modern France (Basic Books, New York).

    Google Scholar 

  • Johansson, Sheila Ryan, 1984a, Deferred infanticide: Excess female mortality during childhood, Ch. 23, in: G. Hausfater and S.B. Ardy, eds., Infanticide: Comparative and evolutionary perspectives (Aldine Publishing Co., New York).

    Google Scholar 

  • Johansson, Sheila Ryan, 1984b, Abuse, neglect and avoidable death: Parental investment and the mortality of infants and children in the European tradition (presented to the SSRC conference on child abuse and child neglect, York, NE, June), published in: Richard J. Gelles and Jane B. Lancaster, eds., 1987, Child abuse and child neglect: Biosocial dimensions (Aldine de Gruyter, New York).

  • Lachiver, Marcel, 1973, Fécondité légitime et contraception dans la région parisienne, in: Hommage à Marcel Reinhard (Paris).

  • Leridon, Henri, 1973, Human fertility: The basic components, transl. J.F. Helzner (University of Chicago Press, Chicago, IL) (1977 translation).

    Google Scholar 

  • Leridon, Henri, 1977, Sur l'estimation de la stérilité, Population, numéro spécial (Novembre) 231–248.

  • Leridon, Henri and Jane Menken, eds., 1977, Natural fertility (Ordina Editions, Liège).

    Google Scholar 

  • Moriceau, Jean-Marc, 1985, Un système de protection sociale efficace: L'exemple des vieux fermiers de l'Ile-de-France (XVII-début XIXs), forthcoming in Annales de Demographie Historique.

  • Newman, John L., 1984, A stochastic dynamic model of fertility, Tulane University Working Paper (October).

  • Newman, John and Charles McCulloch, 1984, A hazard rate approach to the timing of birth, Econometrica (August).

  • Olsen, Randall, 1980, Estimating the effect of child mortality on the number of births, Demography, 17, 429–443.

    Google Scholar 

  • Ozment, Steven, 1983, When fathers ruled: Family life in reformation Europe (Harvard University Press, Cambridge, MA).

    Google Scholar 

  • Preston, S.H., 1978. Introduction, in: S.H. Preston, ed., The effects of infant and child mortality on fertility (Academic Press, New York).

    Google Scholar 

  • Rao, C.R., 1973, Linear statistical inference and its application, 2nd ed. (Wiley, New York).

    Google Scholar 

  • Razin, Assaf, 1980, Number, spacing and quality of children: A microeconomic viewpoint, in: J.L. Simon and J. DaVanzo eds. Research in Population Economics 2, 279–284 (JAI Press, Greenwich).

    Google Scholar 

  • Rodriguez, German and John Hobcraft, 1980, Illustrative analysis: Life table analysis of birth intervals in Colombia, Scientific Report No. 16, World Fertility Survey (World Fertility Survey, London).

    Google Scholar 

  • Rodriguez, German John Hobcraft, John McDonald, Jane Menken and James Trussell, 1984, Comparative analysis of the determinants of birth intervals, Comparative Studies, no. 30, World Fertility Survey (World Fertility Survey, London).

    Google Scholar 

  • Rosenzweig, M.R. and T.P. Schultz, 1985, The demand for and supply of births: Fertility and its life cycle consequences, American Economic Review 75, 992–1015.

    Google Scholar 

  • Ross, J.A. and S. Madhayan, 1981, A Gompertz model for birth interval analysis, Population Studies 35, 439–454.

    Google Scholar 

  • Segalen, Martine, 1983, Love and power in the peasant family: Rural France in the nineteenth century (University of Chicago Press, Chicago, IL) (transl. S. Mathews from the 1980 French edition).

    Google Scholar 

  • Stone, Lawrence, 1977, Family, Sex and Marriage in England 1500–1800 (Weidenfield and Nicholson, London).

    Google Scholar 

  • Sundstrom, William A. and Paul A. David, 1988, Old age security motives, labor markets, and farm family fertility in antebellum America, Explorations in Economic History 25, 164–97.

    Google Scholar 

  • Sussman, George D., 1982, Selling mothers' milk: the wet-nursing business in France, 1715–1914 (University of Illinois Press, Urbana, IL).

    Google Scholar 

  • Trussell, James and C. Hammerslough, 1983, A hazard-model analysis of the covariates of infant and child mortality in Sri Lanka, Demography 20, 1–26.

    Google Scholar 

  • Weir, David R., 1983, Fertility transition in rural France, 1740–1829, Unpublished Ph.D. dissertation, Stanford University.

  • Wolpin, Kenneth, 1984, An estimation dynamic stochastic model of fertility and child mortality, Journal of Political economy 92, 852–8784.

    Google Scholar 

  • Wrigley, E.A., 1985, The fall of marital fertility in nineteenth century France: Exemplar or exception? (parts I and II), European Journal of Population 1, 31–60, 141–77.

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Dept. of Economics, Stanford University, 94305-6072, Stanford, CA, USA

    Paul A. David

  2. NORC, University of Chicago, 1155 East 60th Street, 60637-2799, Chicago, IL, USA

    Thomas A. Mroz

Authors
  1. Paul A. David
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Thomas A. Mroz
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Additional information

This is the second part of a paper which has been published in Vol. 5, no. 1, pp. 1–26. The numbering of the sections, tables and footnotes is continued from part 1.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

David, P.A., Mroz, T.A. Evidence of fertility regulation among rural French villagers, 1749–1789. Eur J Population 5, 173–206 (1989). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01796900

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Revised:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01796900

Keywords

Search

Navigation