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Evidence of fertility regulation among rural french villagers, 1749–1789

A sequential econometric model of birth-spacing behavior (Part 1)

Prévention des naissances en France rurale, 1749–1789

Un modèle économétrique sur l'échelonnement des naissances (première partie)

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Abstract

In this first part an econometric model describing the sequences of live births to individual couples is developed and estimated, using data for a sample of married women in rural French communes during the period 1749–1789. The main methodological objective is to devise a means of controlling for unobserved heterogeneities that result in the endogeneity of variables describing a couple's accumulated demographic experience. Without such controls it is not possible to secure unbiased estimates of responses to familial demographic events, such as the births and deaths of children. Such estimates are sought here as indirect indicators of the existence and nature of deliberate fertility control.

Résumé

Un modèle économétrique, décrivant la suite des naissances vivantes d'un couple donné, est développé et estimé dans cette première partie, en utilisant des données sur un échantillon de femmes mariées dans des communes rurales françaises durant la période 1749–1789. Le principal objectif méthodologique est de fournir un moyen de contrôler l'hétérogénéité non observée qui résulte de variables endogènes décrivant l'expérience cumulative d'un couple. Sans un tel contrôle il n'est pas possible d'obtenir des estimations sans biais de l'effet d'événements démographiques, tels que les naissances et les décès d'enfants. De tels estimateurs sont recherchés ici en vue de fournir des indications indirectes sur l'exercice et la nature d'une prévention des naissances délibérée.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Dept. of Economics, Stanford University, 94305-6072, Stanford, CA, USA

    Paul A. David

  2. NORC, University of Chicago, 1155 East 60th Street, 60637-2799, Chicago, IL, USA

    Thomas A. Mroz

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  1. Paul A. David
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  2. Thomas A. Mroz
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The second part of this article will be published in theEuropean Journal of Population, Vol. 5, no. 2, pp. 173–206.

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David, P.A., Mroz, T.A. Evidence of fertility regulation among rural french villagers, 1749–1789. Eur J Population 5, 1–26 (1989). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01796786

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