A revised estimate of the life span for Lake Nasser

Abstract

A number of estimates of the potential life span of Lake Nasser located in Egypt and Sudan have been made in the past several years. Published estimates range from as little as 20 years (Sterling 1970) to over 1500 years (Makary 1982). The wide range of differing values is a function of many variables, including computation method, input data, and theoretical assumptions underlying the mathematical approach taken. Such a broad range of values is typical of sedimentation studies performed for areas that lack an adequate historic data base.

One of the chief constraints to development of a reliable estimate the Lake Nasser's case has been lack of sufficient historical data on which to construct a useful data base. Enough information of this type has been collected since the reservoir's formation in 1964 to permit a realistic assessment of its life span. Granted the obvious need to determine the useful lifetime of this or any other reservoir, it is now possible to assess the reliability of the current official estimate for Lake Nasser. By applying appropriate modifications and additional data to the official estimate, an improved estimate was made.

The time forecasted for filling of the reservoir by the official estimate is 362 years, somewhat less than the original design life of 500 years. By taking into account changes in the hydrological regime of the Nile after 1964 and another compaction factor, an estimate of 535 years was made. The additional time before filling estimated in the revision is significant for decision rules governing operation of the Aswan High Dam.