Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

A parametric failure time model of international return migration

  • Published:
Papers in Regional Science

Abstract

International return migration is conceptualized and modeled as the outcome of two opposing forces: assimilation into the host society and attachment to the home country. Assimilation is a cumulative learning process that, over time, lowers the tendency to return; attachment levels are less predictable: they might decrease, increase, or remain constant over time. From this proposition, we derive a generalized gamma function for the probability density function of the duration of stay, allowing for increasing, decreasing, and constant hazards of return. The applicability of the model is explored using the case of foreign migrants returning to their home countries from West Germany.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Allison, P. D. 1984.Event history analysis: regression for longitudinal event data. Beverly Hills, California: Sage Publications.

    Google Scholar 

  • Bailey, A. 1989. Getting on your bike: what difference does a migration history make?Tijdschrift voor Economische en Sociale Geographie 80: 312–17.

    Google Scholar 

  • Blejer, M. I., and Goldberg, I. 1980. Return migration — expectations versus reality: a case study of western immigrants to Israel.Research in Population Economics 2: 433–49.

    Google Scholar 

  • Böhning, W. 1984.Studies in international labor migration. New York: St. Martins Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Carmon, N. 1981. Economic integration of immigrants.American Journal of Economics and Sociology 40: 149–63.

    Google Scholar 

  • Cox, D. R. 1972. Regression models and life-tables.Journal of the Royal Statistical Society B 34: 187–220.

    Google Scholar 

  • Cox, D., and Oakes, D. 1984.Analysis of survival data. Andova, New Hampshire: Chapman and Hall.

    Google Scholar 

  • Davies, R. B., and Pickles, A. R. 1985. Longitudinal versus cross-sectional methods for behavioural research: a first-round knockout.Environment and Planning A 17: 1315–29.

    Google Scholar 

  • Diamantides, N., and Constantinou, S. 1989. Modeling the macrodynamics of international migration: determinants of emigration from Cyprus, 1946–85.Environment and Planning A 21: 927–50.

    Google Scholar 

  • Entzinger, H. 1978.Migration for employment project: return migration from West European to Mediterranean countries. Geneva: International Labour Organization, World Employment Programme Working Paper.

    Google Scholar 

  • Evans, M. 1988. Choosing to be a citizen: the time-path of citizenship in Australia.International Migration Review 22: 243–64.

    Google Scholar 

  • Fischer, M., and Nijkamp, P. 1987. Labour market theories: perspectives, problems and policy implications. InRegional Labour Markets, eds. M. Fischer, and P. Nijkamp, pp. 36–52. Amsterdam: North Holland.

    Google Scholar 

  • Ford, K. 1990. Duration of residence in the U.S. and the fertility of U.S. immigrants.International Migration Review 24: 34–68.

    Google Scholar 

  • Gendt, R., and Garcia, P. 1977.Return migration and reintegration services. Washington, DC: OECD.

    Google Scholar 

  • Ginsberg, R. 1979a. Timing and duration effects in residence histories and other longitudinal data I — stochastic and statistical models.Regional Science and Urban Economics 9: 311–31.

    Google Scholar 

  • Ginsberg, R. 1979b: Timing and duration effects in residence histories and other longitudinal data II — studies of duration effects in Norway, 1965–1971.Regional Science and Urban Economics 9: 369–92.

    Google Scholar 

  • Gleave, D., and Cordey-Hayes, M. 1977. Migration dynamics and labor market turnover.Progress in Planning 8: 1–95.

    Google Scholar 

  • Gmelch, G. 1983. Who returns and why: return migration behavior in two North Atlantic societies.Human Organization 42: 46–54.

    Google Scholar 

  • Heckman, J. J., and Singer, B. 1982. The identification problem in econometric models for duration data. InAdvances in Econometrics, ed. W. Hildebrand. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Heins, F. 1985a. Regionale Statistische Information zur Struktur und Entwicklung der ausländischen Wohnbevölkerung und der ausländischen Arbeitnehmer aus der laufenden Raumbeobachtung.Informationen zur Raumentwicklung 6: 559–606.

    Google Scholar 

  • Heins, F. 1985b. Zur Entwicklung der Außenwanderung von Ausändern in der Bundesrepublik Deutschland.Informationen zur Raumentwicklung 6: 465–83.

    Google Scholar 

  • Huff, J. O., and Clark, W. A. V. 1978. Cumulative stress and cumulative inertia: a behavioral model of the decision to move.Environment and Planning A 10: 1101–19.

    Google Scholar 

  • Jones, P. N. 1990. West Germany's declining guestworker population: spatial change and economic trends in the 1980s.Regional Studies 24: 223–33.

    Google Scholar 

  • King, R. 1978. Return migration: a neglected aspect of population geography.Area 10: 175–82.

    Google Scholar 

  • King, R., Strachan, A., and Martimer, J. 1985. The urban dimension of European return migration: the case of Bari, Southern Italy.Urban Studies 22: 214–35.

    Google Scholar 

  • Lawless, J. F. 1982.Statistical models and methods for lifetime data. New York: John Wiley.

    Google Scholar 

  • Lichtenberger, E. 1984.Gastarbeiter: Leben in zwei Gesellschaften. Wien: Hermann Böhlaus Nachf.

    Google Scholar 

  • Mertins, G. 1983. Zwischen Integration und Remigration: Die Gastarbeiterpolitik der Bundesrepublik Deutschland nach 1973 und deren Rahmenbedingungen.Geographische Rundschau 35: 47–53.

    Google Scholar 

  • Mueller, C. F. 1982.The economics of labor migration: a behavioral analysis. New York: Academic Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • O'Farrell, P. N., and Crouchley, R. 1987. Manufacturing-plant closures: a dynamic survival model.Environment and Planning A 19: 313–29.

    Google Scholar 

  • Pickles, A. R., and Rogerson, P. 1984. Wage distributions and search preferences in competitive job search and migration.Regional Studies 18: 131–42.

    Google Scholar 

  • Pennix, R. 1986. International migration in Western Europe since 1973: developments, mechanisms and controls.International Migration Review 20: 951–72.

    Google Scholar 

  • Petras, E., and Kousis, M. 1988. Returning migrant characteristics and labor market demand in Greece.International Migration Review 22: 586–608.

    Google Scholar 

  • Portes, A., and Rumbaut, R. 1990.Immigrant America. Berkeley, California: University of California Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Rogers, R. 1985.Guests come to stay. Boulder, Colorado: Westview Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Sjaastad, L. 1962. The costs and returns to human migration.Journal of Political Economy 70: 80–93.

    Google Scholar 

  • Statistisches Bundesamt Wiesbaden, ed. 1960 to 1988.Statistisches Jahrbuch für die Bundesrepublik Deutschland. Stuttgart, Germany: Verlag Kohlhammer.

    Google Scholar 

  • Waldorf, B. S., and Esparza, A. 1988. Labor migration to Western Europe: a commentary on O'Loughlin, 1986.Environment and Planning A 20: 1121–24.

    Google Scholar 

  • Waldorf, B. S., Esparza, A., and Huff, J. 1990. A behavioral model of international labor and nonlabor migration: the case of Turkish movements to West Germany, 1960–1986.Environment and Planning A 22: 961–73.

    Google Scholar 

  • Wood, C. 1982. Equilibrium and historical-structuralist perspectives on migration.International Migration Review 16: 298–319.

    Google Scholar 

  • Wrigley, N. 1986. Quantitative methods: the era of longitudinal data analysis.Progress in Human Geography 10: 84–102.

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Geography, Indiana University, 47405, Bloomington, Indiana, USA

    Brigitte S. Waldorf & Adrian Esparza

Authors
  1. Brigitte S. Waldorf
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Adrian Esparza
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Waldorf, B.S., Esparza, A. A parametric failure time model of international return migration. Papers in Regional Science 70, 419–438 (1991). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01434597

Download citation

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01434597

Keywords

Search

Navigation