Summary
In this paper we address the issue of monsoon forecasts in relation to the organization of convection. Given a physical initialization procedure, within a data assimilation, it is possible to use the detailed distribution of rainfall from mesoconvective precipitating elements to define the initial state of a global model. If that is carried out using a very high resolution model then the initial state can carry within it an organization of convection within the resolvable scales. Then the impact of physical initialization on the maintenance and prediction of tropical weather such as the monsoon can be determined. Lacking such an initialization, one can expect the convectively driven energetics to be biased, and a slow degradation of the forecasts can follow. Several examples of forecasts at different resolutions are discussed here. The main findings of this study are that improved forecast results are obtained when physical initialization is invoked where the observed rain and the model resolution are comparable, i.e. the footprint of the highest resolutions rainfall estimates obtained from satellite based data sets (principally we use the SSM/I instrument over the oceans). At this resolution, we note that the model is able to carry an organization of convection in the initialization and in the forecasts through the medium-range time scale.
We have compared our results of monsoon studies at a resolution T255 with those at resolution T62. The transform grid separation at the resolution T255 is approximately 50 km and at the resolution T62, it is approximately 200 km. We find that the model at the higher resolution (T255) performs better and has more realistic energy conversions for the convectively driven synoptic scale monsoon.
An organization of convection, at the synoptic scales, is not seen in the forecasts at lower resolutions, T62, where the rainfall patterns are generally much broader and tend to be more zonal. Such organization appears more realistic at the resolution T255. Variances of the energy conversion, calculated in the two-dimensional spectral space, from physically initialized short range forecasts at the higher resolution are seen to be largest on the scales of the monsoon. Similar calculations for the reanalyzed fields at lower resolutions show the spectral distribution of variances to be biased towards local Hadley scale overturnings.
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Krishnamurti, T.N., Bedi, H.S. & Han, W. Organization of convection and monsoon forecasts. Meteorl. Atmos. Phys. 67, 117–134 (1998). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01277505
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01277505