Abstract
Demographic rates of historical populations have usually been calculated using only data from stayers alone. Can they be extrapolated to the population as a whole? Ruggles has recently pointed out, using both logic and a computer simulation, that stayers experience vital events earlier in life than movers due to migration censorship: those who experience them later in life have often migrated away from the community being studied. We show that stayers do indeed marry and die at younger ages than do movers, using a genealogical database on the American North (1620–1880). These differences are caused, however, both by migration censorship and by genuine differences between the two groups and the places they lived. Therefore changes over time among stayers are not good indicators of changes in the population as a whole because they are affected by changing migration rates. Thus no simple “correction factor” can be extrapolated to estimate the general population; neither stayers (nor movers) constitute a “baseline” or “normal” process: both must be considered together in order to gain an accurate picture of the population as a whole.
Résumé
Les taux utilisés en démographie historique sont généralement calculés à l'aide de données concernant les seuls sédentaires. Peuvent-ils être extrapolés pour l'ensemble de la population? Ruggles avait récemment indiqué, en utilisant à la fois des arguments logiques et des simulations informatiques, que les sédentaires connaissent les faits d'état civil plus tôt dans leur vie que les migrants, du fait de la sortie d'observation par migration: ceux qui les connaissent plus tard ont souvent émigré de la communauté étudiée. Nous montrons ici que les sédentaires se marient et meurent à des âges moins élevés que les migrants, à l'aide de données généalogiques d'Amérique du Nord (1620–1880). Cependant ces différences sont causées à la fois par sortie d'observation du fait de l'émigration et par des différences entre les deux groupes et entre les lieux où ils vivent. Il en résulte que les changements au cours du temps observés parmi les sédentaires ne sont pas de bons indicateurs des changements de la population dans son ensemble, car ils sont affectés par l'évolution des taux de migration. Il n'y a donc aucun “facteur de correction” simple qui puisse être extrapolé pour estimer la population dans son ensemble; ni les sédentaires (ni les migrants) ne constituent un processus “de base” ou “normal”: les deux doivent être considérés simultanément pour obtenir une vue précise de la population dans son ensemble.
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Kasakoff, A.B., Adams, J.W. The effect of migration on ages at vital events: A critique of family reconstitution in historical demography. Eur J Population 11, 199–242 (1995). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01264948
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01264948