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An Adelman-test for growth cycles in West Germany

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Abstract

This paper contains a brief description of the methodological approach to economic fluctuations developed by Arthur F. Burns and Wesley C. Mitchell at the National Bureau of Economic Research. Applying this methodology to growth cycles of the West German economy gives rise to a large number of stylized facts which serve as the basis of Adelman tests. Growth cycle implications of two prototypical Real-Business-Cycle models are derived by simulations. Unlike most of the literature, a comparison between model and data statistics produces overwhelming evidence against the Real Business Cycle models.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Fachbereich Wirtschaftswissenschaft, Institut für Statistik und Ökonometrie, Freie Universität Berlin, Boltzmannstr. 20, 14195, Berlin, Germany

    Bernd Lucke

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  1. Bernd Lucke
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Additional information

Thanks are due to Mark Watson for permission to use his GAUSS-version of the Bry-Boschanroutine and to Robert King for indicating the existence of this program. All remaining errors, of course, are my own responsibility.

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Lucke, B. An Adelman-test for growth cycles in West Germany. Empirical Economics 22, 15–40 (1997). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01188168

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01188168

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