Abstract
Two contrasting 18 yr periods (1950–1967 and 1968–1985) were compared to illustrate the hydrologic and water resources effects of a change to a wetter climatic regime over Illinois. For the nine State Climate Divisions, precipitation increases and fluctuations in wetness measured by Palmer Drought Indices revealed a marked shift between the periods. The seasonal variability and spatial coherence of this precipitation climate fluctuation and its impacts are examined in detail and quantitative relationships are derived between Drought Indices and measured soil moisture and streamflow at several sites. Riverflow and well level changes are consistent with this climate change on the 20–40 yr time-scale which has had some significance for water management in the area.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Alley, W. M.: 1984, ‘The Palmer Drought Severity Index: Limitations and Assumptions’,J. Clim. Appl. Meteorol. 23, 1100–1109.
Alley, W. M.: 1985, ‘The Palmer Drought Severity Index as a Measure of Hydrological Drought’,Water Resourc. Bull. 21, 105–114.
Askew, A. J.: 1987, ‘Climate Change and Water Resources’, in Solomon, S. I., Beran, M., and Hogg, W. (eds.),The Influence of Climate Change and Climate Variability on the Hydrologic Regime and Water Resources, Publication No. 168, International Association of Scientific Hydrology, pp. 321–430.
Beran, M.: 1986 ‘The Water Resource Impact of Future Climate Change and Variability’, in Titus, J. G. (ed.),Effects of Changes in Stratospheric Ozone and Global Climate, UNEP/EPA, Washington, D.C.
Bhowmilk, N. G., Adams, J. R., Bonini, A. P., Klock, A. M., and Demissie, M.: 1986,Sediment Loads of Illinois Streams and Rivers, Report of Investigation 106, Illinois State Water Survey, 167 pp.
Cattell, R. B.: 1966, ‘The Scree Test for the Number of Factors’,Multivar. Behav. Res. 1, 245–276.
Changnon, S. A., Jr.: 1983, ‘Trends in Floods and Related Climate Conditions in Illinois’,Clim. Change 5, 341–363.
Changnon, S. A., Jr.: 1985, ‘Climate Fluctuations and Impacts’,Bull. Amer. Meteorol. Soc. 66, 142–151.
Changnon, S. A., Jr.: 1987, ‘Climate Fluctuations and Record-High Levels of Lake Michigan’,Bull. Amer. Meteorol. Soc. 68, 1394–1402.
Cohen, S. J.: 1987, ‘Sensitivity of Water Resources in the Great Lakes Region to Changes in Temperature, Precipitation, Humidity and Windspeed’, in Solomon, S. I., Beran, M., and Hogg, W. (eds.),The Influence of Climatic Change and Climatic Variability on the Hydrologic Regime and Water Resources, Publication Number 168, International Association of Scientific Hydrology, pp. 489–499.
Easterling, W. E. and Changnon, S. A., Jr.: 1988, ‘Climatology of Precipitation Droughts in Illinois Based on Water Supply Problems’,Phys. Geogr. 8, 362–377.
Hanchey, J. R., Schilling, K. E., and Stakhiv, E. Z.: 1987, ‘Water Resources Planning under Climate Uncertainty’, Paper presented atFirst North American Conference on Preparing for Climate Change, October 27–29, 1987, Washington, D.C.
Harmeson, R. H. and Larson, T. E.: 1969,Quality of Surface Water in Illinois, 1956–1966, Bulletin 54, Illinois State Water Survey, 184 pp.
Harmeson, R. H., Larson, T. E., Henley, L. M., Sinclair, R. A., and Neill, J. C.: 1973,Quality of Surface Water in Illinois, 1966–1971, Bulletin 56, Illinois State Water Survey, 100 pp.
Hirsch, R. M., Slack, J. R., and Smith, R. A.: 1982, ‘Techniques of Trend Analysis for Monthly Water Quality Data’,Water Resourc. Res. 18, 107–121.
Huff, F. A. and Angel, J. R.: 1989,Frequency Distribution and Hydroclimatic Characteristics of Heavy Rainstorms in Illinois, Bulletin 70, Illinois State Water Survey, Champaign, 213 pp.
Huff, F. A. and Angel, J. R.: 1990, ‘Fluctuations in the Frequency Distributions of Heavy Rainstorms in the Midwest’,Preprints of the Symposium on Global Change Systems and the Special Sessions on Climate Variations and Hydrology, Feb. 5–9, 1990, American Meteorological Society, Boston, MA, 189–192.
Huff, F. A. and Changnon, S. A., Jr.: 1987, ‘Temporal Changes in Design Rainfall Frequencies in Illinois’,Clim. Change 10, 195–200.
Karl, T. R.: 1983, ‘Some Spatial Characteristics of Drought Duration in the United States’,J. Clim. Appl. Meteorol. 22, 1356–1366.
Karl, T. R.: 1986, ‘The Sensitivity of the Palmer Drought Severity Index and Palmer's Z-Index to Their Calibration Coefficients Including Potential Evapotranspiration’,J. Clim. Appl. Meteorol. 25, 77–86.
Karl, T. R. and Knight, R. W.: 1985,Atlas of Monthly Palmer Moisture Indices (1931–1984) for the Contiguous United States, National Climatic Data Center, Asheville, NC, NOAA.
Karl, T. R. and Riebsame, W. E.: 1984, ‘Identification of 10- to 20-year Temperature and Precipitation fluctuations in the contiguous United States’,Journal of Climate and Applied Meteorology 23, 950–966.
Kirk, J. R.: 1990, personal communication [data from 1988 Illinois Water Inventory Program].
Kohlhase, R. C.: 1987,Ground-water Levels and Pumpage in the East St. Louis Area, Illinois, Circular 168-87, Illinois State Water Survey, 40 pp.
Kunkel, K. E. and Angel, J. R.: 1989, ‘Perspective on the 1988 Midwestern Drought’,Eos 70, 817–819.
Lamb, P. J. and Changnon, S. A., Jr.: 1981, ‘On the “Best” Temperature and Precipitation Normals: The Illinois Situation’,J. Appl. Meteorol. 20, 1383–1390.
Linsley, R. K., Kohler, M. A., and Paulhas, J. L. H.: 1975,Hydrology for Engineers, McGraw-Hill, New York, 482 pp.
Morrisette, P. M.: 1988, ‘The Stability Bias and Adjustment to Climatic Variability: The Case of the Rising Level of the Great Salt Lake’,Appl. Geogr. 8, 171–189.
North, G. R., Bell, T. L., Cahalan, R. F., and Moeng, F. J.: 1982, ‘Sampling Errors in the Estimation of Empirical Orthogonal Functions’,Mon. Wea. Rev. 110, 699–706.
Palmer, W. C.: 1965,Meteorological Drought, U.S. Weather Bureau Research Paper No. 45, 58 pp.
Richman, M. B.: 1986, ‘Rotation of Principal Components’,J. Climatol. 6, 293–335.
Richman, M. B. and Gong, X.-F.: 1993, ‘Relationships between the definition of the hyperplane width and the fidelity of the resulting PC loading patterns’,Proceedings of the Seventeenth Annual Climate Diagnostics Workshop, U.S. Department of Commerce, NOAA, 372–379.
Richman, M. B. and Lamb, P. J.: 1985, ‘Climatic Pattern Analysis of Three- and Seven-Day Summer Rainfall in the Central United States: Some Methodological Considerations and a Regionalization’,J. Clim. Appl. Meteorol. 24, 1325–1343.
Riebsame, W. E. and Smith, D. J.: 1988, ‘Adjusting Water Resources Management to Climate Change’,Clim. Change 13, 69–98.
Sanderson, M. and Wong, L.: 1987, ‘Climatic Change and Great Lakes Water Levels’, in Solomon, S. I., Beran, M., and Hogg, W. (eds.),The Influence of Climatic Change and Climate Variability on the Hydrologic Regime and Water Resources, Publication Number 168, International Association of Scientific Hydrology, pp. 477–487.
Singh, K. P.: 1978, ‘Optimal Operation of Shelbyville and Carlyle Lakes’,Water Resourc. Bull. 14, 1201–1219.
Singh, K. P. and Ramamurthy, G. S.: 1989, ‘Gradual Climate Change and Resulting Hydrologic Response’,Proceedings of the Conference on Climate and Weather, Volume 1, Suomen Akatemian Julkaisuja, The Publications of the Academy of Finland, 11–15 September, 1989, World Meteorological Organization, 476–485.
Singh, K. P. and Ramamurthy, G. S.: 1990, ‘Climate Change and Resulting Hydrologic Response: Illinois River Basin’, Watershed Planning and Analysis in Action Symposium Proceedings of IR Conference, Watershed Management/IR Div./ASCE, Durango, CO, July 9–11, 1990, 28–37.
Singh, K. P., Bender, G. M., Knapp, H. V., McConkey, S. A., Ramamurthy, G. S., and Durgunoglu, A.: 1992,Streamflows and Lakelevels, The 1988–1989 Drought in Illinois: Causes, Dimensions and Impacts, Peter J. Lamb, Scientific Editor, Illinois State Water Survey, Research Report 121, 77–104.
U.S.G.S.: 1971,Water Resources Data for Illinois, United States Geological Survey.
Wehrmann, H. A.: 1992,Groundwater Conditions, The 1988–1989 Drought in Illinois: Causes, Dimensions and Impacts, Peter J. Lamb, Scientific Editor, Illinois State Water Survey, Research Report 121, 105–141.
Wendland, W. M.: 1990, ‘Hydrological Aspects of the 1988 Drought in Illinois’,Water Resourc. Bull. 26, 913–920.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Smith, K., Richman, M.B. Recent hydroclimatic fluctuations and their effects on water resources in Illinois. Climatic Change 24, 249–269 (1993). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01091832
Received:
Revised:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01091832