Abstract
The present study examines the relationships between narcotics use and criminality utilizing a confirmatory structural equation modeling approach. Latentvariable and manifest-variable models are used to represent causal relationships between narcotics use and criminality in both the postaddiction and the pretreatment periods of the addiction career. Latent-variable models include a preexisting deviance construct as an exogenous factor, and manifest-variable models include a measure of drug trafficking, or dealing, as an influencing variable. Both inclusions are made as an attempt to minimize specification error in the models. The results are consistent in showing that, while simultaneous relationships between narcotics and criminality are clearly demonstrable, the prediction of either variable from the other across time cannot be demonstrated. It is concluded that causal relationships between narcotics and criminality are probably not characterized by an appreciable or identifiable time lag. Other theoretical considerations suggested by the modeling results are discussed, such as the role of idiosyncratic approaches to the economics of maintaining addition.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Agar, M. (1973).Ripping and Running: A Formal Ethnography of Urban Heroin Addicts, Seminar Press, New York.
Amemiya, T. (1974). Multivariate regression and simultaneous equation models when the dependent variables are truncated normal.Econometrica 42: 999–1012.
Anglin, M. D.,#$%, McGlothlin, W. H. (1984). Outcome of narcotic addict treatment in California. In Tims, F., and Ludford, J. P. (eds.),Drug Abuse Treatment Evaluation: Strategies, Progress and Prospects (NIDA Research Monograph 51), U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. [DHHS Publ. No. (ADM) 84-1329], pp. 106–128.
Anglin, M. D., and McGlothlin, W. H. (1985). Methadone maintenance in California: A decade's experience. In Brill, L., and Winick, C. (eds.),The Yearbook of Substance Use and Abuse, Human Sciences Press, New York, pp. 219–280.
Anglin, M. D., McGlothlin, W. H., and Speckart, G. (1981). The effects of parole on methadone patients' behavior.Am. J. Drug Alcohol Abuse 8: 153–170.
Anglin, M. D., McGlothlin, W. H., Speckart, G., and Ryan, T. M. (1983). Shutting Off Methadone: The Closure of the San Diego County Methadone Maintenance Program, Final report, NIDA Grant DA02577.
Anglin, M. D., Brecht, M. L., Woodward, J. A., and Bonett, D. (1986). An empirical study of maturing out: Conditional factors.Int. J. Addict. 21: 233–246.
Ball, J. C. (1976). A selective review of the crime-drug literature with reference to future research implications. In Research Triangle Institute,Drug Use and Crime, National Technical Information Service, Springfield, Va. (PB-259 167), pp. 215–229.
Ball, J. C., Rosen, L., Friedman, E. G., and Nurco, D. N. (1980). The impact of heroin addiction on criminality. In Harris, L. (ed.),Problems of Drug Dependence 1979 (NIDA Research Monograph 27), U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. [DHEW Publ. No. (ADM) 80-901], pp. 163–169.
Ball, J. C., Rosen, L., Flueck, J. A., and Nurco, D. N. (1981). The criminality of heroin addicts: When addicted and when off opiates. In Inciardi, J. A. (ed.),The Drugs-Crime Connection, Sage, Beverley Hills, Calif., pp. 39–65.
Ball, J. C., Shaffer, J. W., and Nurco, D. N. (1983). The day-to-day criminality of heroin addicts in Baltimore—A study in the continuity of offence rates.Drug Alcohol Depend. 12: 119–142.
Barton, W. I. (1976). Heroin use and criminality: Survey of inmates of state correctional facilities, January, 1974. In Research Triangle Institute,Drug Use and Crime, National Technical Information Service, Springfield, Va. (PB-259 167), pp. 419–440.
Bern, D. J., and Allen, A. (1974). On predicting some of the people some of the time: The search for cross-situational consistencies in behavior.Psychol Rev. 81: 506–520.
Bentler, P. M. (1980). Multivariate analysis with latent variables: Causal modeling.Annu. Rev. Psychol. 31:419–456.
Bentler, P. M. (1983). Some contributions to efficient statistics in structural models: Specification and estimation of moment structures.Psychometrika 48: 493–517.
Bentler, P. M. (1985).Theory and Implementation of EQS-A Structural Equations Program, BMDP Statistical Software, Inc., Los Angeles.
Bentler, P. M., and Bonnett, D. G. (1980). Significance tests and goodness of fit in the analysis of covariance structures.Phsychol. Bull. 88: 588–606.
Bentler, P. M., and Speckart, G. (1981). Attitudes “cause” behavior: A structural equation analysis.J. Personal. Soc. Psychol. 40: 226–238.
Bentler, P. M., and Weeks, D. G. (1980). Linear structural equations with latent variables.Psychometrika 45: 289–308.
Blum, R. H. (1976). Mind-altering drugs and dangerous behavior: Narcotics. In President's Commission on Law Enforcement and the Administration of Justice Task Force Report,Narcotics and Drug Abuse, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C., pp. 40–63.
Braithwaite, J. B., and Law, H. G. (1978). The structure of self-reported delinquency.Appl. Psychol. Measure. 2: 221–238.
Browne, M. W. (1982). Covariance structures. In Hawkins, D. M. (ed.),Topics in Applied Multivariate Analysis, Cambridge University Press, London, pp. 72–141.
Cambanis, S., Huang, S., and Simons, G. (1981). On the theory of elliptically contoured distributions.J. Multivar. Anal. 11: 368–385.
Chambers, C. D. (1974). Drugs and crime.Addict. Dis. 1: 235–488.
Chmielewski, M. A. (1981). Elliptically symmetric distributions: A review and bibliography.Int. Stat. Rev. 49: 67–74.
Clayton, R. C., and Tuchfeld, B. S. (1982). The drug-crime debate: Obstacles to understanding the relationship.J. Drug Issues 12: 153–166.
Duncan, O. D. (1972). Unmeasured variables in linear models for panel analysis. In Costner, H. (ed.),Sociological Methodology 1972, Jossey-Bass, San Francisco, pp. 36–82.
Elliott, D. S., and Huizinga, D. (1984). The relationship between delinquent behavior and ADM problems. InProceedings of the ADAMHA/ OJJDP Research Conference on Juvenile Offenders with Serious Drug, Alcohol and Mental Health Problems, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C., pp. 61–85.
Elliott, D. S., Huizinga, D., and Ageton, S. S. (1985).Explaining Delinquency and Drug Use, Sage, Beverley Hills, Calif.
Friedman, C. J., and Friedman, A. S. (1973). Drug abuse and delinquency. II. Drug use in three groups of lower social class adolescent boys. In National Commission on Marijuana and Drug Abuse,Drug Use in America: Problem in Perspective, Appendix, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C., pp. 36–51.
Gandossy, R. P., Williams, J. R., Cohen, J., and Harwood, H. J. (1980).Drugs and Crime: A Survey and Analysis of the Literature, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C.
Goldman, F. (1981). Drug abuse, crime and economics: The dismal limits of social choice. In Inciardi, J. A. (ed.),The Drugs-Crime Connection, Sage, Beverley Hills, Calif., pp. 155–182.
Goldstein, P. J. (1981). Getting over: Economic alternatives to predatory crime among street drug users. In Inciardi, J. A. (ed.),The Drugs-Crime Connection, Sage, Beverley Hills, Calif., pp. 67–84.
Greenberg, S. W., and Adler, F. (1974). Crime and addiction: An empirical analysis of the literature, 1920-1973.Contemp, Drug. Prob. 3: 221–269.
Hirschi, T: (1969).Causes of Delinquency, University of California Press, Berkeley.
Huba, G. J., and Bentler, P. M. (1984). Causal models of personality, peer culture characteristics, drug use, and criminal behaviors over a five-year span. In Goodwin, D.,et al (eds.),Longitudinal Research in Alcoholism, Kluwer-Nijhof, Boston, pp. 73–94.
Huba, G. J., and Harlow, L. L. (1983). Comparison of maximum likelihood, generalized least squares, and asymptotically distribution free parameter estimates in drug abuse latent variable causal models.J. Drug Educ. 13: 387–404.
Inciardi, J. A. (1980). Youth, drugs and street crime. In Scarpitti, F., and Datesman, S. (eds.),Drugs and the Youth Culture, Sage, Beverley Hills, Calif, pp. 175–204.
James, L. R., Mulaik, S. A., and Brett, J. M. (1982).Causal Analysis: Assumptions, Models, and Data, Sage, Beverley Hills, Calif.
Jessor, R. (1976). Predicting time of onset of marijuana use: A developmental study of high school youth.J. Consult. Clin. Psychol. 44: 125–134.
Johnson, B., Goldstein, P., and Preble, E. (1979). Preliminary studies on the economic behavior of street addicts. Paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the American Academy for the Advancement of Science, Houston, Tex.
Johnson, B., Goldstein, P., Preble, E., Schmeider, J., Lipton, D., Spunt, B., and Miller, T. (1985).Taking Care of Business: The Economics of Crime by Heroin Abusers, Lexington Books, Lexington, Mass.
Johnston, L. D., O'Malley, P. M. and Eveland, L. K. (1978). Drugs and delinquency: A search for causal connections. In Kandel, D. (ed.),Longitudinal Research on Drug Use: Empirical Findings and Methodological Issues, Hemisphere, Washington, D.C., pp. 137–156.
Jöreskog, K. G. (1977). Structural equation models in the social sciences: Specification, estimation and testing. In Krishnaiah, P. R. (ed.),Applications of Statistics, North-Holland, Amsterdam, pp. 77–104.
Jöreskog, K. G., and Sörbom, D. (1981).LISREL V: Analysis of Linear Structural Relationships by Maximum Likelihood and Least Squares Method, National Education Resources, Chicago.
Kandel, D., Kessler, R., and Margulies, R. (1978). Adolescent initiation into stages of drug use: A sequential analysis. In Kandel, D. (ed.),Longitudinal Research on Drug Use: Empirical Findings and Methodological Issues, Hemisphere, Washington, D.C., pp. 73–97.
Kaplan, H. S. (1980).Deviant Behavior in Defense of Self, Academic Press, New York.
McGlothlin, W. H. (1978). The etiologic relationship between drug use and criminality. In Israel, Y., Glaser, F., Kalant, H., Popham, R., Schmidt, W., and Smart, R. (eds.),Research Advances in Alcohol and Drug Problems, Vol. 4, Plenum Press, New York, pp. 367–394.
McGlothlin, W. H. (1979). Drugs and crime. In DuPont, R. L., Goldstein, A., and O'Donnell, J. (eds.),Handbook on Drug Abuse, National Institute on Drug Abuse, Rockville, Md., pp. 357–364.
McGlothlin, W. H., and Anglin, M. D. (1981). Shutting of methadone: Costs and benefits.Arch. Gen. Psychiat. 38: 885–892.
McGlothlin, W. H., Anglin, M. D., and Wilson, D. D. (1977).An Evaluation of the California Civil Addict Program (NIDA Services Research Monograph Series), [DHEW Publ. No. (ADM) 78-558] U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C.
McGlothlin, W. H., Anglin, M. D., and Wilson, B. D. (1978). Narcotic addiction and crime.Criminology 16: 293–315.
Miller, R. G. (1976). Least squares regression with censored data.Biometrika. 63: 449–464.
Muthén, B. (1984). A general structural equation model with dichotomous, ordered categorical, and continuous latent variable indicators.Psychometrika 49: 115–132.
Nurco, D. N., and Shaffer, J. W. (1982). Types and characteristics of addicts in the community.Drug Alcohol Depend. 9: 43–78.
Nurco, D. N., Bonito, A. J., Lerner, M., and Balter, M. B. (1975). Studying addicts over time: Methodology and preliminary findings.Am. J. Drug Alcohol Abuse 2: 183–196.
Nurco, D. N., Cisin, I. H., and Balter, M. B. (1981). Addict careers. I. A new typology.Int. J. Addict. 16: 1305–1325.
Nurco, D. N., Ball, J. C., Shaffer, J. W., and Hanlon, T. E. (1985). The criminality of narcotic addicts.J. Nerv. Ment. Dis. 173: 94–101.
Olsson, U. (1979). Maximum likelihood estimation of the polychoric correlation coefficient.Psychometrika 44: 443–460.
Petersilia, J., Greenwood, P. W., and Lavin, M. (1978).Criminal Careers of Habitual Felons, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C.
Research Triangle Institute (1976).Drug Use and Crime, National Technical Information Service, Springfield, Va. (PB-259 167).
Rogosa, D. R. (1979). Causal models in longitudinal research: Rationale, formulation and interpretation. In Nesselroade, J. R., and Baltes, P. B. (eds.),Longitudinal Research in the Study of Behavior and Development, Academic Press, New York.
Rogosa, D. R. (1980). A critique of cross-lagged correlation.Psychol. Bull. 88: 245–258.
Saris, W. E., and Stronkhorst, L. H. (1984).Causal Modelling and Nonexperimental Research, Sociometric Research Foundation, Amsterdam.
Shaffer, J. W., Wegner, N., Kinlock, T. W., and Nurco, D. N. (1983). An empirical typology of narcotic addicts.Int. J. Addict. 18: 183–194.
Smith, G. M., and Fogg, C. P. (1978). Psychological predictors of early use, late use, and nonuse of marijuana among teenage students. In Kandel, D. (ed.),Longitudinal Research on Drug Use: Empirical Findings and Methodological Issues, Hemisphere, Washington, D.C, pp. 101–113.
Speckart, G. (1984). Narcotics and crime: A multimethod, multisample approach, Unpublished doctoral dissertation, University of California, Los Angeles.
Speckart, G., and Anglin, M. D. (1985). Narcotics and crime: An analysis of existing evidence for a causal relationship.Behav. Sci. Law 3: 259–283.
Waldorff, D. (1973).Careers in Dope, Prentice Hall, Englewood Cliffs, N.J.
Weissman, J. C. (1982). Understanding the drugs and crime connection. In Weissman, J. C., and DuPont, R. L. (eds.),Criminal Justice and Drugs: The Unresolved Connection, National University Publications, Port Washington, N.Y.
Wolfgang, M. E., Figlio, R. M., and Sellin, T. (1972).Delinquency in a Birth Cohort, University of Chicago Press, Chicago.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Speckart, G., Anglin, M.D. Narcotics and crime: A causal modeling approach. J Quant Criminol 2, 3–28 (1986). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01064593
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01064593