Abstract
Uncertainty is definitely one of the key topics in environmental assessment and management. Typically, attempts to reduce uncertainty are subject to expenses. But how to compare and trade-off expenses and the reduced uncertainty? They only seldom allow the use of a single unit. Instead, the whole analysis and decision procedure is very subjective. This paper presents one approach to handle such problems, namely the combined use of Bayesian influence diagrams, and probabilistic risk attitude analysis. The approach was used in the evaluation of three alternatives for a real time river water quality forecasting system. A trade-off analysis of risk attitudes, costs and uncertainty indicated the levels of socioeconomic utility required for investments in the respective systems, and accordingly illuminated the impact of the uncertainties involved on inference and decision-making with various risk attitudes and discount rates.
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Varis, O., Kløve, B. & Kettunen, J. Evaluation of a real-time monitoring system for river quality — a trade-off between risk attitudes, costs, and uncertainty. Environ Monit Assess 28, 201–213 (1993). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00545765
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00545765