Summary
To estimate the number of stages contained in the planning horizon, while performing a decision task, a modified multistage betting game is considered. The version introduces a maximum final pay-off. Under the assumption of a logarithmic utility-function the optimal policy is derived. According to the number of anticipated stages, different suboptimal policies may be distinguished. In two experiments, a total of 100 Ss were investigated under four experimental conditions. The medians for the estimates of the length of the planning horizon are around two stages. The efficiencies of the according suboptimal policies were determined in a sensitivity analysis and were found to be approximately 90 percent.
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Kleiter, G.D. Estimating the planning horizon in a multistage decision task. Psychol. Res 38, 37–64 (1975). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00308938
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00308938