Does research productivity decline with age?

Abstract

The research productivity of psychologists holding appointment in British universities was studied within a cross-sequential design. Publication rates in 1968–1970 and 1978–1980 were compared across groups differing in terms of chronological age and date of birth. At both times of measurement psychologists above 45 years of age published less frequently than younger psychologists. Psychologists who held appointment in 1980 as well as 1970 published less frequently in 1978–1980 than in 1968–1970, irrespective of their age in 1970. Although productivity dropped with age, there was considerable variability in output between younger and older psychologists. Further, a person's publication rate in 1978–1980 was better predicted by their past productivity (publication rate in 1968–1970) than by their age. These results are discussed in the context of factors that affect research productivity, as well as changes that will occur in the age distribution of British academics over the next 20 years.