Abstract
This paper explores the use of recently developed time series techniques for short term traffic volume forecasts. A data set containing monthly volumes on a freeway segment for the years 1968 through 1976 is used to fit a time series model. The resulting model is used to forecast volumes for the year 1977. The forecast volumes are then compared to actual volumes in 1977. The results of this study indicate that time series techniques can be used to develop highly accurate and inexpensive short term forecasts. A discussion of the ways in which such models can be used to evaluate the effects of policy changes or other outside impacts is included.
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Nihan, N.L., Holmesland, K.O. Use of the box and Jenkins time series technique in traffic forecasting. Transportation 9, 125–143 (1980). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00167127
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00167127