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The probable behaviour of sunspot Cycle 21

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Abstract

After an explanation of the method of forecasting based upon the 80-yr sunspot cycle, reasons are given for assuming that the maximum of the present 80-yr cycle now has passed. Starting from this assumption the following predictions can be made: (1) Cycle 21 will be so weak that the highest value of the smoothed monthly means of the sunspot-relative-numbers will lie between 56 and 96; (2) The minimum at the beginning of Cycle 21 will occur during the first half of 1975; (3) Cycle 21 will attain its maximum between 1979.5 and 1980.5; (4) The minimum terminating Cycle 21 will take place during the first half of 1986. A comparison with other predictions shows that they differ considerably from one another; nevertheless, several of them yield results similar to the predictions stated here.

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  1. Astronomical Institute, University of Frankfurt/Main, West Germany

    W. Gleissberg

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  1. W. Gleissberg
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Gleissberg, W. The probable behaviour of sunspot Cycle 21. Sol Phys 21, 240–245 (1971). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00155794

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00155794

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