Abstract
In policy theory, technology assessment is most effective when applied in the early stages of research and development, when changes are easier. This ability depends on the qualities of the given tools. Visions and metaphors enjoy much attention today because they provide an early but sustainable orientation. Understanding their necessarily ambivalent nature, their social function, and their cognitive significance provides the basis for their use in analysis. Working with visions more systematically than we do today can improve the selection of technological alternatives. While the method of assessing future technologies with metaphors will not (and cannot, just like all other technology assessments) forecast subsequent decisions, it provides insights about tomorrow's technologies that can inform today's decisions.
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Tepper, A. Controlling technology by shaping visions. Policy Sci 29, 29–44 (1996). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00141478
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00141478