Skip to main content
Log in

A general maximum likelihood analysis of overdispersion in generalized linear models

  • Papers
  • Published:
Statistics and Computing Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

This paper presents an EM algorithm for maximum likelihood estimation in generalized linear models with overdispersion. The algorithm is initially derived as a form of Gaussian quadrature assuming a normal mixing distribution, but with only slight variation it can be used for a completely unknown mixing distribution, giving a straightforward method for the fully non-parametric ML estimation of this distribution. This is of value because the ML estimates of the GLM parameters may be sensitive to the specification of a parametric form for the mixing distribution. A listing of a GLIM4 algorithm for fitting the overdispersed binomial logit model is given in an appendix.

A simple method is given for obtaining correct standard errors for parameter estimates when using the EM algorithm.

Several examples are discussed.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Abramowitz, M. and Stegun, I. A. (eds) (1964) Handbook of Mathematical Functions. National Bureau of Standards, Washington DC.

    Google Scholar 

  • Aitkin, M. (1995) Probability model choice in single samples from exponential families using Poisson log-linear modelling, and model comparison using Bayes and posterior Bayes factors. Statistics and Computing, 5, 113–20.

    Google Scholar 

  • Aitkin, M. (1996) A general maximum likelihood analysis of variance components in generalized linear models. Submitted.

  • Aitkin, M. and Aitkin, I. (1996) A hybrid EM/Gauss-Newton algorithm for maximum likelihood in mixture distributions. Statistics and Computing (to appear).

  • Aitkin, M., Anderson, D. A., Francis, B. J. and Hinde, J. P. (1989) Statistical Modelling in GLIM. Oxford University Press.

  • Aitkin, M. and Francis, B. J. (1995) Fitting overdispersed generalized linear models by nonparametric maximum likelihood. GLIM Newsletter, 25, 37–45.

    Google Scholar 

  • Aitkin, M. and Tunnicliffe Wilson, G. T. (1980) Mixture models, outliers and the EM algorithm. Technometrics, 22, 325–31.

    Google Scholar 

  • Anderson, D. A. (1988) Some models for overdispersed binomial data. Aust. J. Statist., 30, 125–48.

    Google Scholar 

  • Anderson, D. A. and Aitkin, M. (1985) Variance component models with binary response: interviewer variability. J. Roy. Statist. Soc. B 47, 203–10.

    Google Scholar 

  • Anderson, D. A. and Hinde, J. P. (1988) Random effects in generalized linear models and the EM algorithm. Commun. Statist.-Theory Meth., 17, 3847–56.

    Google Scholar 

  • Barry, J. T., Francis, B. J. and Davies, R. B.(1989) SABRE: software for the analysis of binary recurrent events. In Statistical Modelling, Springer-Verlag, New York.

    Google Scholar 

  • Bock, R. D. and Aitkin, M. (1981) Marginal maximum likelihood estimation of item parameters: an application of an EM algorithm. Psychometrika, 46, 443–59.

    Google Scholar 

  • Böhning, D., Schlattman, P. and Lindsay, B. (1992) Computerassisted analysis of mixtures (C.A.MAN): statistical algorithms. Biometrics, 48, 285–303.

    Google Scholar 

  • Breslow, N. (1984) Extra-Poisson variation in log-linear models. Appl. Statist., 33, 38–44.

    Google Scholar 

  • Breslow, N. (1989) Score tests in overdispersed GLMs. In Statistical Modelling, Springer-Verlag, New York.

    Google Scholar 

  • Breslow, N. (1990) Tests of hypotheses in overdispersed Poisson regression and other quasi-likelihood models. J. Amer. Statist. Assoc., 85, 565–71.

    Google Scholar 

  • Brownlee, K. A. (1965) Statistical Theory and Methodology in Science and Engineering (2nd edn). Wiley, New York.

    Google Scholar 

  • Crouch, E. A. C. and Spiegelman, D. (1990) The evaluation of integrals of the form ∫-∞/+∞(t) exp(-t 2)dt: application to logistic-normal models. J. Amer. Statist. Assoc., 85, 464–9.

    Google Scholar 

  • Davies, R. B. (1987) Mass point methods for dealing with nuisance parameters in longitudinal studies. In: R. Crouchley, ed. Longitudinal Data Analysis. Avebury, Aldershot, Hants.

    Google Scholar 

  • Dean, C. B. (1992) Testing for overdispersion in Poisson and binomial regression models. J. Amer. Statist. Assoc., 87, 451–7.

    Google Scholar 

  • Dempster, A. P., Laird, N. M. and Rubin D. A. (1977) Maximum likelihood estimation from incomplete data via the EM algorithm (with Discussion). J. Roy. Statist. Soc. B, 39, 1–38.

    Google Scholar 

  • Dietz, E. (1992) Estimation of heterogeneity-a GLM approach. In Advances in GLIM and Statistical Modelling. Springer-Verlag, New York.

    Google Scholar 

  • Dietz, E. and Böhning, D. (1995) Statistical inference based on a general model of unobserved heterogeneity. In Statistical Modelling. Springer-Verlag, New York.

    Google Scholar 

  • Efron, B. (1986) Double exponential families and their use in generalized linear regression. J. Amer. Statist. Assoc., 81, 709–21.

    Google Scholar 

  • Ezzet, F. and Davies, R. B. (1988) A manual for MIXTURE. Centre for Applied Statistics, Lancaster, UK.

    Google Scholar 

  • Feigl, P. and Zelen, M. (1965) Estimation of exponential probabilities with concomitant information. Biometrics, 21, 826–38.

    Google Scholar 

  • Follman, D. A. and Lambert, D. (1989) Generalizing logistic regression by nonparametric mixing. J. Amer. Statist. Assoc., 84, 295–300.

    Google Scholar 

  • Francis, B. J., Green, M. and Payne, C. (eds) (1993) The GLIM System: Release 4 Manual. Clarendon Press, Oxford.

    Google Scholar 

  • Heckman, J. J. and Singer, B. (1984) A method for minimizing the impact of distributional assumptions in econometric models of duration. Econometrica, 52, 271–320.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hinde, J. P. (1982) Compound Poisson regression models. In R. Gilchrist, ed. GLIM 82 Springer-Verlag, New York.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hinde, J. P. and Wood, A. T. A. (1987) Binomial variance component models with a non-parametric assumption concerning random effects. In R. Crouchley, ed. Longitudinal Data Analysis. Avebury, Aldershot, Hants.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kiefer, J. and Wolfowitz, J. (1956) Consistency of the maximum likelihood estimator in the presence of infinitely many nuisance parameters. Ann. Math. Statist., 27, 887–906.

    Google Scholar 

  • Laird, N. M. (1978) Nonparametric maximum likelihood estimation of a mixing distribution. J. Amer. Statist. Assoc., 73, 805–11.

    Google Scholar 

  • Lesperance, M. L. and Kalbfleisch, J. D. (1992) An algorithm for computing the non-parametric MLE of a mixing distribution. J. Amer. Statist. Assoc., 87, 120–6.

    Google Scholar 

  • Lindsay, B. G. (1983) The geometry of mixture likelihoods, part I: a general theory. Ann. Statist., 11, 86–94.

    Google Scholar 

  • Louis, T. A. (1982) Finding the observed information matrix when using the EM algorithm. J. Roy. Statist. Soc., B, 44, 226–33.

    Google Scholar 

  • McCullagh, P. and Nelder, J. A. (1989) Generalized Linear Models. Chapman & Hall, London.

    Google Scholar 

  • Moore, D. F. (1987) Modelling the extraneous variance in the presence of extrabinomial variation. Appl. Statist., 36, 8–14.

    Google Scholar 

  • Nelder, J. A. (1985) Quasi-likelihood and GLIM. In R. Gilchrist, B. Francis and J. Whittaker, eds, Generalized Linear Models Springer-Verlag, Berlin.

    Google Scholar 

  • Williams, D. A. (1982) Extra-binomial variation in logistic linear models. Appl. Statist;., 31, 144–8.

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Aitkin, M. A general maximum likelihood analysis of overdispersion in generalized linear models. Stat Comput 6, 251–262 (1996). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00140869

Download citation

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00140869

Keywords

Navigation