Abstract
The use of a relatively high resolution general circulation model (the Meteorological Office 5-layer model) to determine climate changes for impact studies is evaluated. The simulation of present day climate over Western Europe is assessed by comparing not only different seasons with climatological data, but also the mean annual cycle and the frequency of extreme events. It is found that while the broad features of the simulation are satisfactory, the model produces too many cold episodes in spring, and an excessive number of wet days over northern Europe. When atmospheric CO2 concentrations are quadrupled, and sea surface temperatures and sea ice extents changed appropriately, the number of cold episodes is reduced and precipitation is less frequent in summer and autumn over much of Europe, and throughout the year in the south. The relevance of both the model data and the statistical tests to climate impact studies is discussed.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Bilham, E. G.: 1938, The Climate of the British Isles, MacMillan and Co Ltd, London, pp. 347.
Box, G. E. P. and Jenkins, G. M.: 1976, Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control, Revised edition, Holden-Day, San Francisco, 575 pp.
Corby, G. A., Gilchrist, A., and Rowntree, P. R.: 1977, United Kingdom Meteorological Office Five Level General Circulation Model. Methods in Computational Physics, Vol 17, Academic Press Inc., New York, San Francisco and London, 67–110.
Gabriel, K. R. and Neumann, J.: 1962, ‘A Markov Chain Model for Daily Precipitation Occurrence at Tel Aviv’, Quart J. R. Met. Soc. 88, 90–95.
Geiger, R.: 1965, The Climate Near the Ground, Harvard University Press, pp. 611.
Katz, R. W.: 1982, ‘Statistical Evaluation of Climate Experiments with General Circulation Models: A Parametric Time Series Modelling Approach’, J. Atmos. Sci. 39, 1446–1455.
Katz, R. W.: 1983, ‘Statistical Procedures for Making Inferences About Precipitation Changes Simulated by an Atmospheric General Circulation Model’, J. Atmos. Sci. 40, 2193–2201.
Katz, R. W.: 1984, 'Procedures for Determining the Statistical Significance of Changes in Variability Simulated by an Atmospheric General Circulation Model, Climate Research Institute Report No. 48, Oregon State University, Corvallis, Oregon.
Kim, J. W., Chang, J. T., Baker, N. L., Gates, W. L., and Wilks, D. J.: 1982, ‘The Statistical Problem of Climate Inversion: Determination of the Relationship Between Local and Large Scale Climate’, Month. Weath. Rev. 112, 2069–2077.
Laurmann, J. A. and Gates, W. L.: 1977, ‘Statistical Considerations in the Evaluation of Climatic Experiments with Atmospheric General Circulation Models’, J. Atmos. Sci. 34, 1187–1199.
Leith, C. E.: 1973, ‘The Standard Error of Time-Average Estimates of Climatic Means’, J. Appl. Meteor. 12, 1066–1069.
Manabe, S. and Stouffer, R. J.: 1980, ‘Sensitivity of a Global Climate Model to an Increase of CO2 Concentration in the Atmosphere’, J. Geophys. Res. 85, 5529–5554.
Meinl, H., Bach, W., Jager, J., Jung, H-J., Knottenberg, H., Marr, G., Santer, B., and Schwieren, G.: 1984, Socioeconomic Impacts of Climate Changes Due to a Doubling of Atmospheric CO 2 Content, Report for contract No. CLI-063-D of the Climatology Programme of the Commission of the European Communities, Brussels.
Mitchell, J. F. B.: 1983a, ‘The Seasonal Response of a General Circulation Model to Changes in CO2 and Sea Temperatures’, Quart. J. R. Met. Soc. 109, 113–152.
Mitchell, J. F. B.: 1983b, ‘The Hydrological Cycle as Simulated by an Atmospheric General Circulation Model’, in A. Street-Perrott, M. Beran, and R. Ratcliffe (eds.), Variations in the Global Water Budget, D. Reidel Publ. Co., Dordrecht, Holland.
Mitchell, J. F. B. and Lupton, G.: 1984, ‘A 4 × CO2 Experiment with Prescribed Changes in Sea Temperatures’, Progress in Biometeorology 3, 353–374.
Mitchell, J. F. B., Wilson, C. A., and Cunnington, W. M.: 1987, ‘On CO2 Climate Sensitivity and Model Dependence of Results’, Quart. J. R. Met. Soc. 113, 1–30.
Parry, M. L.: 1985, ‘Estimating the Sensitivity of Natural Ecosystems and Agriculture to Climate Change’, Climatic Change 7, 1–3.
Pickup, M. N.: 1980, ‘An Investigation Into Variations of Grass Minimum Depressions’, Meteorological Magazine 109, 230–237.
Reed, D. N.: 1986, ‘Simulation of Temperatures and Precipitation over Eastern England by an Atmospheric General Circulation Model’, Journal of Climatology 6, 233–253.
Rex, D. F.: 1950, ‘The Climatology of Blocking Action’, Tellus 2, 275–301.
Ritchie, W.: 1967, ‘Night Minimum Temperature over Various Surfaces’, Meteorological Magazine 98, 297–304.
Santer, B.: 1985, ‘The Use of General Circulation Models in Climate Impact Analysis A Preliminary Study on the Impacts of a CO2-Induced Climatic Change on West European Agriculture’, Climate Change 7, 71–94.
Schlesinger, M. E. and Mitchell, J. F. B.: 1986, ‘Model Projections of Equilibrium Climatic Response to Increased CO2, Concentration’, in M. C. MacCracken and F. M. Luther (eds.), Projecting the Climatic Effects of Increasing Carbon Dioxide, DDE State-of-the Art Report, DOE/ER-1237, Washington D.C., pp. 81–147.
Slingo, J. M.: 1982, ‘A Study of the Earth's Radiation budget Using a General Circulation Model’, Quart. J. R. Met. Soc. 108, 379–405.
Spelman, M. J. and Manabe, S.: 1984, ‘Influence of Oceanic Heat Transport upon the Sensitivity of a Model Climate’, J. Geophys. Res. 89, 571–586.
UK Meteorological Office: 1982, Tables of Temperature, Relative Humidity, Precipitation and Sunshine for the World, Part III-Europe and the Azores. Met. 0 856C London, HMSO.
Washington, W. M. and Meehl, G. A.: 1984, ‘Seasonal Cycle Experiment on the Climate Sensitivity Due to a Doubling of CO2 with an Atmospheric General Circulation Model Coupled to a Simple Mixed Layer Ocean Model, J. Geophys. Res. 89, 9475–9503.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Wilson, C.A., Mitchell, J.F.B. Simulated climate and CO2—Induced climate change over Western Europe. Climatic Change 10, 11–42 (1987). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00140555
Received:
Revised:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00140555