13. Conclusions
After decades of studying municipal charters largely by looking for patterns in the data, we have a good basis for proceeding more formally with testable theories. The political significance of demographic change becomes apparent by looking at its impact on political conflict in combination with the biases in social-choice rules. The theory of civil rights provides a framework for doing this. It suggests identifying (1) the distribution of civil rights conveyed to citizens by alternative charters and (2) the bases for political conflict, such as different demands for services and the unequal command of economic resources to satisfy them. Charters, then, become political tools. Simple statistical tests fail to refute this.
The methodology employed in these tests follows logically from the theory. However, untangling region from the state laws is easier than untangling ethnicity or even race from income as explanatory variables. Understanding cultural differences that may well create value conflicts independent of financial ones will be still more difficult. Furthermore, some population changes should be considered endogenous to a theory of charter reform. Better estimates will require multiple-equation formulations that can handle simultaneity. In sum, more thought, better data, and more refined tests are necessary.
How deterministic can we be in making predictions? Some ambiguity may be inherent in studying institutions such as city charters. The significance of a particular provision is not always the same because of its complex interactions with other provisions. The context in which citizens enact a provision is, of course, all important. The more subtle the impact of the provision, the more subtle the contextual factors that induced its enactment. That may justify close historical analysis informed by a theory of constitutional contracts, but it inhibits prediction. Still, predicting the direction and rate of change in municipal charters should be within the realm of possibilities.
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This research has been supported by grants from the Graduate School of the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee; the Center for Population Research at the National Institute of Child Health and Human Development, grant #HD12606; and Willamette University. I appreciated the comments from Keith Poole, the discussants, and the participants at the Carnegie Conference on Political Economy.
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Maser, S.M. Demographic factors affecting constitutional decisions: the case of municipal charters. Public Choice 47, 121–162 (1985). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00119355
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00119355