Abstract
Climatic variations affect growers of dry regions, and so the agricultural management techniques require modification according to the timing and amount of precipitation for the optimization of yield and economic output for a specified season and location. Farm manager preparedness depending on past practices can be enhanced by long-range skilled forecasting of rainfall. The well-known modes of interannual fluctuations affecting the Indian subcontinent are the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and El-Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Dry regions of Pakistan, i.e., Pothwar, are facing a number of key challenges in the prediction of irregular rain. Modeling skewed, zero, nonlinear, and non-stationary data are a few of the main challenges. To deal with this, a probabilistic statistical model was used in three of the dry areas of Pothwar to predict monsoon and wheat-growing season. To find out the prospects of rainfall, occurring in the system, the model utilizes logistic regression through generalized additive models (GAMs). Our study exploits climatic predictors (Pacific and the Indian Ocean SSTs demonstrating the status of the IOD and the ENSO) affecting rainfall fluctuations on the Indian subcontinent for their effectiveness in predicting seasonal rainfall (three rainfall intervals and the monsoon rains throughout the wheat-growing period). The outcome demonstrated that the observed area had the amount and fluctuation of rainfall determined by SSTs, so predictions can be carried out by intellect to overpass the gaps among average and potential wheat yield with a change in management practices, i.e., appropriate time of sowing and use of suitable genotypes. In addition, the forecasting ability score, i.e., R2, RMSE (root-mean-square error), BSS (Brier skill score), S% (skill score S), LEPS (linear error in probability space), NSE (Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient), and ROC (receiver operating characteristics, p-value), assessed validation of model for rainfall prediction to verify the effectiveness of GAM and to formulate contrast among varying validation abilities to do cross-validation of rainfall prediction. Likewise, the forecast systems present substantial benefits in enhancing general operational management when used in agriculture production across the whole value chain.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Ahmed M (2011) Climatic resilience of wheat using simulation modeling in Pothwar. PhD thesis. Arid Agriculture University, Rawalpindi
Ahmed M (2020) Introduction to modern climate change. Andrew E. Dessler: Cambridge University Press, 2011, 252 pp, ISBN-10: 0521173159. Sci Total Environ 734:139397. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.139397
Ahmed M, Stockle CO (2016) Quantification of climate variability, adaptation and mitigation for agricultural sustainability. Springer Nature Singapore Pvt. Ltd., Singapore, 437 pp. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-32059-5
Caroline CU, Alexander Sen G, Yue L, Andréa ST, Matthew HE (2011) Multi-decadal modulation of the El Niño–Indian monsoon relationship by Indian Ocean variability. Environ Res Lett 6:034006
Ding Y, Sikka D (2006) Synoptic systems and weather. The Asian Monsoon. Springer, Berlin, pp 131–201
Eilers PHC, Marx BD (1996) Flexible smoothing with B-splines and penalties. Stat Sci 11:89–101
Hastie T, Tibshirani R (1986) Generalized additive models (with discussion). Stat Sci 1:297–310
Hyndman RJ, Grunwald GK (2000) Generalized additive modelling of mixed distribution markov models with application to Melbourne’s rainfall. Aust N Z J Stat 42:145–158
IPCC (2014) Climate change 2014: impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability. Part A: global and sectoral aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the fifth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Field CB, Barros VR, Dokken DJ, Mach KJ, Mastrandrea MD, Bilir TE, Chatterjee M, Ebi KL, Estrada YO, Genova RC, Girma B, Kissel ES, Levy AN, MacCracken S, Mastrandrea PR, White LL(eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge/New York.
Klein Tank AMG, Peterson TC, Quadir DA, Dorji S, Zou X, Tang H, Santhosh K, Joshi UR, Jaswal AK, Kolli RK, Sikder AB, Deshpande NR, Revadekar JV, Yeleuova K, Vandasheva S, Faleyeva M, Gomboluudev P, Budhathoki KP, Hussain A, Afzaal M, Chandrapala L, Anvar H, Amanmurad D, Asanova VS, Jones PD, New MG, Spektorman T (2006) Changes in daily temperature and precipitation extremes in central and south Asia. J Geophys Res-Atmos 111, n/a-n/a
Liu B, Xu M, Henderson M, Qi Y (2005) Observed trends of precipitation amount, frequency, and intensity in China, 1960–2000. J Geophys Res-Atmos 110, n/a-n/a
Meinke H, Stone R (2005) Seasonal and inter-annual climate forecasting: the new tool for increasing preparedness to climate variability and change in agricultural planning and operations. Clim Chang 70:221–253
Mustafa Z (2011) Climate change and its impact with special focus in Pakistan. Pakistan Engineering Congress, Symposium. Lahore, p 290.
R Development Core Team (2008) R: a language and environment for statistical computing. R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna
Rigby R, Stasinopoulos D (2001) The GAMLSS project: a flexible approach to statistical modelling. pp 249–256
Rigby RA, Stasinopoulos DM (2005) Generalized additive models for location, scale and shape (with discussion). J R Stat Soc Ser C 54:507–554
Stasinopoulos DM, Rigby RA, Akantziliotou C (2009) gamlss: a collection of functions to fit generalized additive models for location, scale and shape. R Packag Version 2:2–0
Stocker TF, Qin D, Plattner GK, Tignor M, Allen SK, Boschung J, Nauels A, Xia Y, Bex B, Midgley B (2013) IPCC, 2013: climate change 2013: the physical science basis. Contribution of working group I to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press.
Trenberth KE, Stepaniak DP (2001) Indices of El Niño evolution. J Clim 14:1697–1701
Turner AG, Annamalai H (2012) Climate change and the South Asian summer monsoon. Nat Clim Chang 2:587–595
van Ogtrop F, Ahmad M, Moeller C (2014) Principal components of sea surface temperatures as predictors of seasonal rainfall in rainfed wheat growing areas of Pakistan. Meteorol Appl 21(2):431–443. https://doi.org/10.1002/met.1429
Wang C, Weisberg RH, Virmani JI (1999) Western pacific interannual variability associated with the El Nino-Southern Oscillation. J Geophys Res 104:5131–5149
Acknowledgment
The authors are thankful to the Higher Education Commission for the financial support to complete this study.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2020 Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd.
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Ahmed, M., Fayyaz-ul-Hassan, Ahmad, S., Hayat, R., Raza, M.A. (2020). Application of Generalized Additive Model for Rainfall Forecasting in Rainfed Pothwar, Pakistan. In: Ahmed, M. (eds) Systems Modeling. Springer, Singapore. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-15-4728-7_15
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-15-4728-7_15
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, Singapore
Print ISBN: 978-981-15-4727-0
Online ISBN: 978-981-15-4728-7
eBook Packages: Biomedical and Life SciencesBiomedical and Life Sciences (R0)