Quantitative Analysis of Japan’s 2030 Target Based on AIM/CGE and AIM/Enduse

Abstract

Japan submitted its (Intended) Nationally Determined Contributions ((I)NDC) that is 26% reduction of GHG in 2030 compared with the 2013 level on July 2015. In this analysis, Japan’s NDC is assessed using the technology selection model (AIM/Enduse) and the computable general equilibrium model (AIM/CGE) developed by AIM (Asia-Pacific Integrated Model) Project Team. In addition, consistency between the NDC and the 80% reduction target by 2050 is also assessed using AIM/Enduse. The analysis by 2030 suggests that Japan’s NDC can be achieved with improvement of energy efficiency in the end-use sectors and deployment of low-carbon energies in the supply side. The marginal abatement cost in 2030 accounts for about 200 US$/t-CO_2, but the severe economic impact can be avoided by introducing the appropriate GHG mitigation options. Moreover, the 2050 target which is to reduce GHG by 80% is also technically feasible, although rapid and large-scale transformation of energy system is required between 2030 and 2050, including electrification in the end-use sectors.