Longitudinal Research in Criminology: Promise and Practice

Abstract

Like several others attending this conference, I have invested the last 30 years, nearly all of my professional career, in longitudinal research. At this first NATO conference on this type of criminological study, it seems appropriate to take stock of these efforts: has this data collection strategy lived up to it’s promise? is this data collection and analysis design cost effective? While there may be consensus at this conference on these questions, there are those who have raised serious questions about the “pay-off” from longitudinal research, particularly in light of the preference given to this design by funding agencies over the past decade and the relative cost of this data collection strategy as compared to cross-sectional (and other) data collection designs.

The original data presented here are from the National Youth Survey which has been supported by grants from the Violence and Traumatic Stress Research Branch, NIMH (MH27552); The National Institute of Justice (82-IJ-CX-0011); and the National Institute for Juvenile Justice and Delinquency Prevention (78-JN-AX-0003). Points of view or opinions expressed in this paper are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the official position or policies of the Department of Health and Human Services or the Department of Justice. The author would like to acknowledge the assistance of Howard Bashinsky in the analyses presented on the suspension of violence and the graphics for this section of the paper.