Estimation of the Wind Hazard in Tropical Cyclone Regions

Abstract

Quantification of the risks imposed by tropical cyclones is of critical importance, offering the potential to greatly reduce the loss of human life and the damage caused by these storms. Computer simulation methods predicting wind speeds in regions dominated by tropical cyclones have emerged as a powerful, reliable and currently the most frequently used tool in estimating long-term risk levels associated with these storms. In this paper a refined simulation procedure developed at The University of Western Ontario’s Boundary Layer Wind Tunnel Laboratory to estimate the wind risk from tropical cyclones is described. This procedure will be illustrated by application to sites in the North Atlantic including the U.S. Gulf and Atlantic coastline, the Caribbean island of Antigua and Sable Island, located near the offshore oil discoveries of the Hibernian and Venture fields on the Canadian Atlantic Coast. The means by which the procedure can be applied to estimate local site-specific wind risk for over-land locations, tropical cyclone extreme wave risk for offshore applications and other insurance-related problems will also be discussed. Finally, examples will be given of the regional hurricane wind hazard maps which can be determined by the repeated application of the procedure, demonstrating the power of the simulation approach in establishing risk guidelines in tropical cyclone regions.