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Integrating Geographic Information Systems and Ecological Niche Modeling into Disease Ecology: A Case Study of Bacillus anthracis in the United States and Mexico

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Emerging and Endemic Pathogens

Part of the book series: NATO Science for Peace and Security Series A: Chemistry and Biology ((NAPSA,volume 00))

Abstract

This chapter provides an overview of geographic information systems, spatial analysis and spatial statistics, and predictive ecological niche modeling as they apply to disease ecology. I provide a conceptual model of the epidemiology and outbreak ecology of anthrax and the landscape ecology of the pathogen Bacillus anthracis. I apply Anselin’s exploratory spatial data analysis process to these two components of the anthrax-transmission and spore-survival model. Spatial clustering statistics are reviewed in the context of outbreak epidemiology and potential mechanical vector transmission. I then provide a primer on ecological niche theory and apply ecological niche modeling to estimate the potential geographic distribution of B. anthracis on the landscape of the contiguous United States under current and future climate scenarios and to estimate the unknown distribution of B. anthracis in Mexico.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Spatial Epidemiology and Ecology Research Laboratory, Department of Geography, California State University, Fullerton, Fullerton, California, USA

    Jason K. Blackburn

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  1. Jason K. Blackburn
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  1. US Army Edgewood Chemical Biological Cen, Blackhawk Road 5183, Aberdeen Proving Ground, 21010, USA

    Kevin P. O'Connell

  2. US Army Edgewood Chemical Biological Cen, Blackhawk Road 5183, Aberdeen Proving Ground, 21010, USA

    Evan W. Skowronski

  3. Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Mowry Road 2055, Gainesville, 32604, USA

    Alexander Sulakvelidze

  4. National Center for Disease Control, 9 M. Asatiani Street, Tbilisi, 0177, Georgia

    Lela Bakanidze

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Blackburn, J.K. (2010). Integrating Geographic Information Systems and Ecological Niche Modeling into Disease Ecology: A Case Study of Bacillus anthracis in the United States and Mexico. In: O'Connell, K., Skowronski, E., Sulakvelidze, A., Bakanidze, L. (eds) Emerging and Endemic Pathogens. NATO Science for Peace and Security Series A: Chemistry and Biology, vol 00. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-90-481-9637-1_7

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