Abstract
Though the EU’s climate change mitigation strategy has taken precedence over adaptation, there are signs this is beginning to change. With the publication of both a Green (2007) and a White Paper (2009) on an EU Adaptation strategy, the European Commission has taken the important step of initiating broad discussion and encouraging the mainstreaming or integration of adaptation strategies into the existing EU and Member state policy framework. Still, without extensive revision – in particular in the direction of ecosystem preservation, improvement and creation – and the parallel introduction of a Climate Change Commission mandated to pursue mitigation AND adaptation strategies in the Community interest, policy outcomes are likely to remain fragmented and suboptimal. Institutional divisions at the EU and national levels reinforce sectorally-driven climate strategies that only partially address the goals of either mitigation or adaptation. Among other policy suggestions, this chapter makes two broad recommendations. First, the EU and the Member states should seriously re-evaluate the approach to such policies as the water framework directive, Natura 2000 sites and biodiversity, afforestation, ecosystem services and ecosystem preservation. Second, significant institutional reforms could heighten EU commitment to the climate change agenda, reinforce its already significant international bargaining authority and broaden the focus and impact of the EU’s growing mitigation and adaptation agenda. Rapidly changing climate dynamics leave little room to dally.
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Notes
- 1.
For up-to date information on which countries have completed Adaptation strategies and which have not, see the EEA’s National Adaptation Strategy registry: http://www.eea.europa.eu/themes/climate/national-adaptation-strategies. See also Swart et al. (2009), Massey (2009) and Massey and Bergsma (2008).
- 2.
See ‘World on course for catastrophic 6° rise, reveal scientists’ (The Independent, Nov. 18th 2009).
- 3.
On climate change feedbacks and potential tipping phenomena, see in particular Lenton et al. (2008).
- 4.
The PESETA study was in fact incomplete at the time. The final conclusions of the PESETA study have only just recently been made available. See Ciscar (2009).
- 5.
The only other somewhat larger scale project prior to the ACACIA project was the ESCAPE project completed in the early 1990s. See Rotmans, Hulme, and Downing (1994).
- 6.
One commentator argued that this has been the case in particular in Finland in recent years.
- 7.
In particular, the JRC’s then unfinished version of the PESETA project provides much of the foundation for the Green Paper and the Annex to the Green Paper. See for example the website of the PESETA project: http://peseta.jrc.ec.europa.eu/ and also the final report published in 2009 (Ciscar, 2009).
- 8.
The ENSEMBLES project, which followed up on the PRUDENCE project, has further refined the level of resolution to 25 km and some regional projects manage even higher resolution projection maps. See Van der Linden and Mitchell (2009).
- 9.
See the Commission’s webpage: http://ec.europa.eu/environment/climat/eccpii.htm, and http://ec.europa.eu/environment/climat/eccp_impacts.htm.
- 10.
The most important reports in this regard were EEA Report No. 2/2004 on Impacts of Europe’s Changing Climate: An Indicator Based Assessment, and EEA Technical Report No. 7/2005 on Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change in Europe.
- 11.
For more detail and access to the sectoral reports, see: http://ec.europa.eu/environment/climat/eccp_impacts.htm.
- 12.
These points outlined in Commission documentation of the consultation process at: http://ec.europa.eu/environment/climat/adaptation/stakeholder_consultation.htm.
- 13.
Other projects have also attempted to catalogue NAS strategies across countries. One of the more interesting in the context of this chapter is the attempt to catalogue the NAS approach to biodiversity strategies (see the MACIS study paper; University of Oxford 2008). The CIRCLE group, though still at a very preliminary stage, is also involved in assessing approaches to adaptation strategies: http://www.circle-era.net/. The ADAM project (http://www.adamproject.eu/) has likewise attempted to assess and report on adaptation efforts in individual countries.
- 14.
The Health Commission’s webpage clearly outlines its future emphasis on the health effects of climate change (see: http://ec.europa.eu/health/ph_threats/climate/climate_en.htm).
- 15.
In highlighting these areas for focused attention, the Commission’s Action Plan leans on the UNEP/IVM Handbook on Methods for Climate Change Impact Assessment and Adaptation Strategies (1998).
- 16.
- 17.
See the FutMon project website: http://www.futmon.org/Project.htm.
- 18.
See e.g.: ‘Europe Must Grasp the True Value of Biodiversity’ (EEA Highlight, Apr. 27th 2009).
- 19.
See the website of the Forest Monitoring Project: http://www.icp-forests.org/index.htm.
- 20.
In concert with the ecosystem services approach, the TEEB Project on the Economics of Ecosystems and Biodiversity attempts to provide initial estimates of these costs and their potential conversion into pricing systems. See the TEEB project website at: http://ec.europa.eu/environment/nature/biodiversity/economics/teeb_en.htm.
- 21.
See e.g., ‘Drought Ignites Spain’s “Water War”’ (Guardian.co.uk, Apr. 6th 2008). Though this single citation might give the impression that droughts in Spain are unusual circumstances, a quick news search will reveal repeated versions of the same basic water war issue on an annual basis since at least 2005.
- 22.
See the findings from the PRUDENCE project: http://prudence.dmi.dk/public/beniston.html.
- 23.
See ‘Italy-France Deal Sparks Nuclear Revival’ (Euractiv.com, Feb. 25th 2009). As an indication of the likelihood this goal will be fulfilled, one might look at the progress of a similar EDF plant being built in Finland. The project has experienced significant delays and is reportedly already three and a half years behind schedule. Currently it is schedule for completion in 2012.
- 24.
Dry-cooling systems can also be used in traditional fossil fuel-based power plants. Where they are used, dry-cooling systems tend to reduce water use by some 80–90% or more. However, dry-cooling systems require more energy to power fan systems (cf. Sovacool & Sovacool, 2009; Feeley et al., 2008; US DOE, 2006).
- 25.
These results are published on the PESETA website (http://peseta.jrc.ec.europa.eu/docs/Agriculture.html).
- 26.
For information on the CECILIA project, see the project website at: http://www.cecilia-eu.org/. Information on the CLAVIER study is available at: http://www.clavier-eu.org.
- 27.
These findings are based on personal communications with the Hungarian Meteorological Association (OMSZ) and the graphs included below. For more general findings from the project, see Csima and Horanyi (2008).
- 28.
This potential is recognised, for example, by the Commission’s JRC: ‘the tendency for dry years to form clusters increases the magnitude of the drought threat. For example, any repetition of the sustained rainfall deficiencies that were a feature of a 25-year period beginning in the 1880s would, with present demand levels, represent a very severe challenge to water management throughout much of Europe’ (JRC, 2005, p. 130).
- 29.
The timetable for WFD-related submissions is available at: http://ec.europa.eu/environment/water/water-framework/info/timetable_en.htm.
- 30.
See the website of the WATCH project on water and global change: http://eu-watch.org/nl/25222705-Home.html. It is furthermore unclear from the project description how much focus will be placed on the two primary sources of water demand (energy and agriculture). From the project deliverables produced as of this writing, only the global evolution domestic household water demand has been considered. Though future deliverables in Work Block 2 intend to consider other aspects of water demand (in particular agriculture and industry), the energy sector or power producers are not listed in this section.
- 31.
For more on the SCENES project, see the website: http://www.environment.fi/default.asp?contentid=342422&lan=EN.
- 32.
EU level efforts to reduce energy use are governed by a number of different Directives and commitments. Most recently, as part of the Energy and Climate Change Package approved in December 2008, the EU committed to reducing energy use 20% by the year 2020. However, there is no single directive that lays down the specific strategy by which the EU and individual Member States will achieve this goal. That said, the Commission is currently focusing on revising and updating the 2002 Directive on the Energy Performance of Buildings (Directive 2002/91/EC). Other relevant EU legislation on energy efficiency includes Directive 2005/32/EC on the eco-design of energy-using products, Directive 2006/32/EC on energy end-use efficiency and energy services, the EU Action Plan for Energy Efficiency (COM(2006)545 final) and finally Directive 2004/8/EC on the combined generation of heat and electricity.
- 33.
- 34.
- 35.
Though research on the water balance is cutting edge, it is also highly controversial. Zhang, Vertessy, Walker, Gilfedder, and Hairsine (2007) argue, for example, that the impact of increased forestation on water supply is negative. However, these authors fail to consider the impact of forests on groundwater supply. Moreover, how one should think of the impact of evapotranspiration on local precipitation events is likewise controversial. Though most authors simply view evapotranspiration as a loss to the local water cycle, others view the forest-water balance on a very broad scale in its broader ecosystem context. Other authors however attempt to view the forest-water balance in a more holistic fashion, i.e. in their broader ecosystem context. These authors tend to find more support for the view that forests support increased water supply and aid significantly in improving water balance (cf. Schwärzel et al., 2009; Sheil & Murdiyarso, 2009; IUCN, 2009). Maes, Heuvelmans, and Muys (2009) likewise suggest that evapotranspiration should potentially be seen as a contribution to the water cycle, with potentially positive implications for the water balance. However, the relationship between forests and the water balance remains disputed. For a recent overview of this debate, see Ellison (2010).
- 36.
Much of the documentation discussed at this conference is available at the conference website: http://www.mcpfe.org/www-mcpfe/forests_and_water.
- 37.
The first of these was held in Joensuu in September 2009 (conference website: http://www.metla.fi/tapahtumat/2009/koli/index.htm). The second will be held in May 2010 (conference website: http://www.efi.int/portal/news___events/events/extra/2010/JFNW2010/).
- 38.
Geothermal power plants that do not use water re-injection systems can also use larger amounts of water. Thus re-injection, though more costly because it involves additional drilling in order to be able to re-inject water back into the cycle, should also be mandated.
- 39.
See the UNECE convention website: http://www.unece.org/env/water/cooperation/area422.htm.
- 40.
See; ‘Ministers ‘Deeply Concerned’ by Biodiversity Loss (Euractiv.com, June 26th 2009).
- 41.
The EEA’s Core Set of Indicators Data (CSI data) suggests many EU Member States have done relatively well in fulfilling some of their basic commitments to the Habitat and Birds Directives. For example, a broad set of EU countries have at least ‘proposed’ sites that would be sufficient to protect habitats and species. Moreover, the total amount of surface area dedicated to species and habitat protection in Europe has multiplied some 6- or 7-fold between approximately 1996 and the present (cf. the CSI 008 Assessments, various years).
- 42.
See McGlade’s speech on the Status of European Biodiversity at the Athens conference on Biodiversity Protection—Beyond 2010, (Apr. 27th 2009).
- 43.
See: Europe Must Grasp the True Value of Biodiversity (EEA Highlight, Apr. 27th 2009).
- 44.
Not surprisingly, there is considerable disagreement over the potential range of biome shift. The Commission’s White Paper, for example, notes a range of 500–1000 km (European Commission, 2009b). Other estimates (on which the Commission’s report draws) mention somewhat smaller ranges. For example, DG Agriculture’s report suggest a potential range from 100 to 400 km (EFI-BOKU-INRA-IAFS, 2008) and the EEA’s Adaptation study suggests the potential may shift as much as 550 km for birds and some 100–500 km for forests (EEA, 2008).
- 45.
On the BRANCH project see; http://www.branchproject.org/. On the MACIS project see; http://macis-project.net/index.html.
- 46.
See, Beetles, Wildfire: Double Threat in Warming World, (Associated Press, Aug. 23rd 2009).
- 47.
See e.g.; Efforts to sustain biodiversity fall short (Nature, Nov. 19th 2009).
- 48.
If we take the larger figure of 13 million hectares of increased forest cover noted above, which includes re- and afforestation under the EAFRD as well as other afforestation projects, this sum amounts to just over 11.5% of the total EU forest cover in a 15-year period, a considerably larger figure.
- 49.
The TEEB project attempts to estimate the costs of ecosystem services and propose relevant pricing strategies. A similar strategy is already being elaborated under the Water Framework Directive, which requires Member States to introduce water pricing systems for national water resources by 2010.
- 50.
See e.g., MEPs Angry at Plans for Energy Shake-up (European Voice, May 14th 2009); FERN’s EU Forest Watch newsletter (June 2009, Issue No. 139) and the letter from EU GLOBE members (May 18th 2009).
- 51.
Pekka Pesonen, a former state secretary at the Finnish Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry warned against the dangers of an overly aggressive degree of centralisation in forestry policy and argued that policies should remain national in character due to national-level variation in approaches to forest policy. In his view, the adoption of common rules could potentially lead to contradictions with national-level policy strategies. See Call for more EU co-ordination on forest policy (Euractiv.com 2007). Though forestry policy may seem a skewed example since it is not firmly integrated into the EU legislative framework, it is highly illustrative of the way in which vested interests have come to inhabit sectoral-institutional frameworks and the difficulties in sharing policies cross-institutionally (cf. Ellison & Keskitalo, 2009).
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Ellison, D. (2010). Addressing Adaptation in the EU Policy Framework. In: Keskitalo, E. (eds) Developing Adaptation Policy and Practice in Europe: Multi-level Governance of Climate Change. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-90-481-9325-7_2
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