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Climate Change and Migration: A Modelling Approach

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African Climate and Climate Change

Part of the book series: Advances in Global Change Research ((AGLO,volume 43))

Abstract

Past estimates of the numbers of migrants caused to relocate as a result of climate change have ranged from millions to billions worldwide. Attempts to quantify the numbers of people affected have commonly been based around calculating the numbers of ‘environmental refugees’ by projecting physical climate changes, such as sea-level rise or rainfall decline, on an exposed population. These studies generally make simplistic assumptions about the ability of individuals to cope with variations in climate. However, empirical evidence of environmentally induced migration have not supported such an approach with the recognition that migration decisions are usually not mono-causal but influenced by multiple factors involving complex spatial interactions under heterogeneous conditions. In this context, agent based modelling offers a robust method to model autonomous decision making in relation to migration. In this chapter we discuss the theoretical development of an agent-based modelling approach to climate change-migration studies using the example of Burkina Faso. In doing so we cover questions of emergence, validation, and bounded rationality related to quantitative migration studies.

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Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. School of Global Studies, University of Sussex, Brighton, UK

    C. Smith

  2. Department of Geography, School of Global Studies, University of Sussex, Brighton, UK

    Dominic R. Kniveton

  3. School of Informatics, University of Sussex, Brighton, UK

    S. Wood

  4. Sussex Centre for Migration Research, University of Sussex, Brighton, UK

    R. Black

Authors
  1. C. Smith
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  2. Dominic R. Kniveton
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  3. S. Wood
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  4. R. Black
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to C. Smith .

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

  1. University of Reading, 2U18 Department of Meteorology, Reading, RG6 6BB, United Kingdom

    Charles J. R. Williams

  2. Dept. Geography, University of Sussex, Chichester 1-143, Brighton, BN1 9QJ, United Kingdom

    Dominic R. Kniveton

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Smith, C., Kniveton, D.R., Wood, S., Black, R. (2011). Climate Change and Migration: A Modelling Approach. In: Williams, C., Kniveton, D. (eds) African Climate and Climate Change. Advances in Global Change Research, vol 43. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-90-481-3842-5_8

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