Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Mortality and Risk-factor Trends in Minnesota: Minnesota Heart Studies

  • Conference paper
Lessons for Science from the Seven Countries Study

Summary

Recent trends in Minnesota mortality rates and coronary heart disease risk-factor levels were examined in data from the Minnesota Heart Health Program and state vital statistics. Trends in underlying causes of death were examined for all Minnesota deaths occurring between 1969 and 1991. Risk-factor levels were examined based on serial cross-sectional population-based surveys of 300–500 persons each in six communities during the 1980s. The results were as follows:

  1. 1.

    Mortality rates in Minnesota for all-causes and most specific causes during 1969–1991 generally declined in people below age 85, and were stable in people at age 85 and above.

  2. 2.

    Death rates declined for most cardiovascular causes, coronary heart disease, and most cancers other than lung, liver, brain, and prostate.

  3. 3.

    Death rates in people aged 55–74 years increased for late-stage coronary heart disease (arrhythmias and congestive heart failure) and for stroke, lung cancer, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease; prostate, liver, and brain cancers; endocrine and metabolic diseases (excluding diabetes); AIDS; septicemia; and senile dementia.

  4. 4.

    Coronary heart disease risk-factor levels generally decreased through the 1980s, with the exception of body mass index. Slope of change in serum total cholesterol closely paralleled slope of change in Keys score applied to dietary survey data. The steady increase in body mass index and the plateau in the level of leisure time physical activity, together with the lack of change in dietary caloric intake, suggest that work- and transportation-related physical activity decreased.

With a few exceptions, cause-specific mortality rates decreased in Minnesota in an era of cardiovascular risk-factor decline. Continued risk-factor reduction is clearly warranted, along with continued surveillance of trends in mortality, morbidity, and risk factors.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this chapter

Log in via an institution
Chapter
USD 29.95
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
eBook
USD 39.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
Softcover Book
USD 54.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Compact, lightweight edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info
Hardcover Book
USD 54.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Durable hardcover edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Institutional subscriptions

Preview

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

References

  1. Goldman L, Cook EF (1984) The decline in ischemic heart disease mortality rates. An analysis of the comparative effects of medical interventions and changes in lifestyle. Ann Intern Med 101: 825–1836.

    PubMed  CAS  Google Scholar 

  2. Gilbertson DT, McGovern PG, Jacobs DR, Gatewood LG, Blackburn H (1992) A mathematical modeling approach toward explaining the decline in coronary heart disease mortality. Circulation 86, abstract no 2378

    Google Scholar 

  3. Department of Health and Human Services (1972) Blood pressure levels in persons 18–74 years of age in 1976-1980, and trends in blood pressure from 1960 to 1980 in the United States. National Center for Health Statistics, Hyattsville, Md. (Series II: Data from the National Health Survey, no 234) (DHHS publication no (PHS) 86–1684 )

    Google Scholar 

  4. National Center for Health Statistics, National Heart, Lung and Blood Institute Collaboration Lipid Group (1987) Trends in serum cholesterol levels among US adults aged 20 to 74 years. Data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys, 1960 to 1980. JAMA 257: 937–942

    Article  Google Scholar 

  5. Johnson CL, Rifkind BM, Sempos CT, Carroll MD, Bachorik PS, Briefel RR, Gordon DJ, Burt VL, Brown CD, Lippel K, Cleeman JI (1993) Declining serum total cholesterol levels among US adults. The National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys. JAMA 269: 3002–3008

    Article  PubMed  CAS  Google Scholar 

  6. Fiore ML, Novotny TE, Pierce JP, Hatziandreu EJ, Patel KM, Davies RM (1989) Trends in cigarette smoking in the United States. The changing influence of gender and race. JAMA 261: 49–55

    Article  PubMed  CAS  Google Scholar 

  7. Jacobs D (1978) Risk factor changes in Minneapolis men. In: Proceedings of the Conference on the Decline in Coronary Heart Disease Mortality. U.S. Department of Health, Education and Welfare, Bethesda, Md. NIH publication no 79-1610, pp 215–217

    Google Scholar 

  8. Sprafka JM, Burke GL, Folsom AR, Luepker RV, Blackburn H (1990) Continued decline in cardiovascular disease risk factors: Results of the Minnesota Heart Survey, 1980–1982 and 1985–1987. Am J Epidemiol 132: 489–500

    PubMed  CAS  Google Scholar 

  9. Luepker RV, Jacobs DR, Folsom AR, Gillum RF, Frantz ID, Gomez-Marin O, Blackburn H (1988) Cardiovascular risk factor change 1973–74 to 1980–82: The Minnesota Heart Survey. J Clin Epidemiol 41: 825–833

    Article  PubMed  CAS  Google Scholar 

  10. Jacobs DR, Hahn LP, Folsom AR, Hannan PJ, Sprafka JM, Burke GL (1991) Time trends in leisure-time physical activity in the Upper Midwest 1957–1987: University of Minnesota Studies. Epidemiology 2: 8–15

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  11. Jacobs DR Jr, Luepker RV, Mittelmark MB, Folsom AR, Pirie PL, Mascioli SR, Hannan PJ, Pechacek TF, Bracht NF, Carlaw RW, Kline FG, Blackburn H, for the Minnesota Heart Health Program Research Group (1986) Community-wide prevention strategies: Evaluation design of the Minnesota Heart Health Program. J Chronic Dis 39: 775–788

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  12. Mittelmark MB, Luepker RV, Jacobs DR, Bracht NF, Carlaw RW, Crow RS, Finnegan J, Grimm RH, Jeffery RW, Kline FG, Mullis RM, Murray DM, Pechacek TF, Perry CL, Pirie PL, Blackburn H, for the Minnesota Heart Health Program Research Group (1986) Community-wide prevention of cardiovascular disease: Education strategies of the Minnesota Heart Health Program. Prev Med 15: 1–17

    Google Scholar 

  13. Jacobs DR, McGovern PG, Blackburn H (1992) Why is stroke mortality declining? Is ecologic analysis informative? Am J Publ Health 82: 1596–1599

    Article  Google Scholar 

  14. Klebba AJ, Scott JH (1980) Estimates of selected comparability ratios based on dual coding of 1976 death certificates by the eighth and ninth revisions of the International Classification of Diseases. Monthly Vital Statistics Report. Department of Health Education and Welfare publication no PHS 80–1120, vol 28, no ll[Suppl]

    Google Scholar 

  15. Jacobs D, Blackburn H, Higgins M, Reed D, Iso H, McMillan G, Neaton J, Nelson J, Potter J, Rifkind B, Rossouw J, Shekelle R, Yusuf S (1992) Report of the Conference on Low Blood Cholesterol: Mortality Associations. Circulation 86: 1046–1060

    PubMed  CAS  Google Scholar 

  16. Jacobs DR (1993) Why is low blood cholesterol associated with risk of nonathero-sclerotic disease death? Ann Rev Publ Health 14: 95–114

    Article  Google Scholar 

  17. Stamler J, Stamler R, Brown WV, Gotto AM, Greenland P, Grundy S, Hegsted DM, Luepker RV, Neaton JD, Steinberg D, Stone N, Van Horn L, Wissler RW (1993) Serum cholesterol. Doing the right thing. Circulation 88: 1954–1960

    PubMed  CAS  Google Scholar 

Download references

Authors
  1. David R. Jacobs Jr.
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. J. Michael Sprafka
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Peter J. Hannan
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Cynthia M. Ripsin
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  5. Paul G. McGovern
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  6. Henry Blackburn
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

  1. Division of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, University of Minnesota, 55454, MN, USA

    Ancel Keys M.D. (Emeritus Professor) & Henry Blackburn M.D. (Mayo Professor of Public Health and Professor of Medicine) (Emeritus Professor) &  (Mayo Professor of Public Health and Professor of Medicine)

  2. The Third Department of Medicine, The Institute of Cardiovascular Diseases, Kurume University School of Medicine, 830, Kurume, Japan

    Hironori Toshima M.D. (Emeritus Professor) (Emeritus Professor)

  3. The Third Department of Medicine, Kurume University School of Medicine, 830, Kurume, Japan

    Yoshinori Koga M.D. (Associate Professor) (Associate Professor)

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

© 1994 Springer-Verlag Tokyo

About this paper

Cite this paper

Jacobs, D.R., Sprafka, J.M., Hannan, P.J., Ripsin, C.M., McGovern, P.G., Blackburn, H. (1994). Mortality and Risk-factor Trends in Minnesota: Minnesota Heart Studies. In: Keys, A., Toshima, H., Koga, Y., Blackburn, H. (eds) Lessons for Science from the Seven Countries Study. Springer, Tokyo. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-4-431-68269-1_12

Download citation

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-4-431-68269-1_12

  • Publisher Name: Springer, Tokyo

  • Print ISBN: 978-4-431-68271-4

  • Online ISBN: 978-4-431-68269-1

  • eBook Packages: Springer Book Archive

Publish with us

Policies and ethics

Search

Navigation