Abstract
The behavior of a complex social system is unpredictable because both the uncertainties and the complex interactions in the system affect its future behavior. Existing scenario analysis methods focus on the effects of complex interactions of the system upon the system’s behavior, rather than the uncertainties in the system. The purpose of this paper is to develop a novel scenario analysis method that mainly focuses on evaluating a range of possible outcomes in a system based on selected uncertainties. We validate this method by applying it to a case example in which the configuration of an evaluation system for a sales division is examined.
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Acknowledgement
This work was supported in part by Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research No. 21310097 and No. 22730312.
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Goto, Y., Takahashi, S. (2011). Landscape Analysis of Possible Outcomes. In: Chen, SH., Terano, T., Yamamoto, R. (eds) Agent-Based Approaches in Economic and Social Complex Systems VI. Agent-Based Social Systems, vol 8. Springer, Tokyo. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-4-431-53907-0_7
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-4-431-53907-0_7
Publisher Name: Springer, Tokyo
Print ISBN: 978-4-431-53906-3
Online ISBN: 978-4-431-53907-0
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