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Prognosegütemaße

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Methodik der empirischen Forschung

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Der Blick in die Zukunft fasziniert Menschen seit jeher. Egal, ob man Aussagen zur Erderwärmung, zu Wahlen oder zu Aktienkursen trifft - eine breite Aufmerksamkeit ist gesichert. Dies kann sich jedoch immer dann in ein Problem umkehren, wenn die Güte der getroffenen Prognosen unzureichend ist und rein gar nicht mit den tatsächlich eintretenden Ereignissen übereinstimmt. Besonders krasse Fehlprognosen werden gern von der Presse aufgegriffen, entsprechende Beiträge (z.B. über das Versagen von Bank-Analysten) entbehren meist nicht einer gewissen Schadenfreude (Tabelle 28.1).

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Authors
  1. Christian Barrot
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Sönke Albers Daniel Klapper Udo Konradt Achim Walter Joachim Wolf

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© 2007 Betriebswirtschaftlicher Verlag Dr. Th. Gabler |d GWV Fachverlage GmbH, Wiesbaden

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Barrot, C. (2007). Prognosegütemaße. In: Albers, S., Klapper, D., Konradt, U., Walter, A., Wolf, J. (eds) Methodik der empirischen Forschung. Gabler. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-8349-9121-8_28

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