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The Delphi Method: An Introduction

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Delphi Methods In The Social And Health Sciences

Abstract

The Delphi method has developed from a “classic” to a variety of Delphi methods or “types”, which can have very different functions and are used in different subject areas. Online variants, especially the Real-time Delphi with instant feedback are becoming more and more popular. This introduction explains the different definitions, types and fields of application and shows the most important points to consider when using one of the Delphi methods. Special attention should be paid to the participants and their different backgrounds and expertise as well as to the design of the “questionnaire”. For example, typical questions in a Delphi are about the importance or time horizon of realizing a statement about a future issue, e.g. a problem solution in the health care system, a technology, or an educational measure. The Delphi method will continue to have a place in the canon of methods used in Foresight and Futures Research as well as in general empirical research in various disciplines where uncertainty is an issue (e.g. business administration). The method will be integrated more and more into overall processes and is a building block in the method mix of futures sciences, e.g. coupled with scenarios.

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Notes

  1. 1.

    On the history of the historical Delphi, see Maass (1993) or Parke (1956), but also Andronicos (1983); on the principle of self-fulfilling prophecy today, see Weaver et al. (2015) or Sternberg et al. (2011), among others.

  2. 2.

    This phenomenon is also found in the very simple horoscopes (e.g. in magazines): The person who believes in the horoscope behaves accordingly and thus makes the event possible in the first place. The other possibility is that the horoscope is formulated so broadly that subjectively one of the individual events is true in any case.

  3. 3.

    Helmer (1983), various sections. The very first Delphi surveys, however, are said to have been used for dog and horse betting since 1948, Woudenberg (1991, pp. 131–150) and Pill (1971, pp. 57–71), respectively.

  4. 4.

    Dalkey and Campbell have demonstrated that without the preservation of anonymity after the discussion, the result is not as accurate as the average opinion of the participants in the discussion before the discussion, Dalkey (1968).

  5. 5.

    Dalkey (1969, p. 23 ff.). This result, however, is doubted by Sackman (1975).

  6. 6.

    The Japanese national Delphi of the NISTEP, for example, was for the first time conducted online in the tenth edition (published in 2015). 5 years earlier, the paper questionnaire had still been used.

  7. 7.

    On the function of the brain, e.g. Burnett (2016).

  8. 8.

    For examples from the BOHEMIA project, see Andreescu et al. (2017).

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  1. Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research, Karlsruhe, Germany

    Kerstin Cuhls

  2. University of Heidelberg, Heidelberg, Germany

    Kerstin Cuhls

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Cuhls, K. (2023). The Delphi Method: An Introduction. In: Niederberger, M., Renn, O. (eds) Delphi Methods In The Social And Health Sciences. Springer, Wiesbaden. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-658-38862-1_1

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