Abstract
Sociologists and demographers have long been interested in the role of economic uncertainty in family behavior. Despite the prevailing “bourgeois conviction” that economic uncertainty discourages people from having children, the empirical evidence on this issue is mixed. In this paper, I summarize the recent empirical evidence, and discuss the potential limitations of previous investigations. Among the possible shortcomings of these studies is that many relied exclusively on unemployment as an operational definition of labor market uncertainty. Subjective indicators of economic uncertainty, which measure the individual’s perception of his or her economic situation more directly, often were not available to researchers. Moreover, few of these studies explored group-specific differences in behavior. In this paper, we seek to overcome some of the limitations of these earlier analyses. Based on data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (GSOEP), we study the role of perceived economic uncertainty in transitions to first and higher order births for the period 1990–2013. In addition, we examine how different population subgroups (stratified by education, parity, and age) respond to economic uncertainty.
Zusammenfassung
Der Zusammenhang von ökonomischer Unsicherheit und Geburtenentwicklung ist ein Themenfeld, das gleichermaßen von soziologischer wie auch von demografischer Bedeutung ist. Obwohl theoretische Überlegungen zumeist der „bürgerlichen Überzeugung“ verhaftet geblieben sind, dass ökonomische Unsicherheiten sich negativ auf das Geburtenverhalten niederschlagen sollten, haben empirische Studien in diesem Bereich eher uneinheitliche Befunde geliefert. Dieser Beitrag fasst aktuelle Studien zusammen und setzt sich kritisch mit den vorliegenden empirischen Befunden auseinander. Zum einen haben bisherige Studien zumeist nur Arbeitslosigkeit als Merkmal ökonomischer Sicherheit herangezogen. Subjektive Indikatoren, die unmittelbarer die aktuelle ökonomische Situation widerspiegeln, waren in den bisher verwendeten Daten oft nicht verfügbar. Darüber hinaus haben nur wenige Studien sich der Frage gewidmet, ob unterschiedliche Subpopulationen unterschiedlich auf ökonomische Unsicherheit reagieren. Mit diesem Beitrag soll ein Teil dieser Forschungslücke geschlossen werden, indem auf Basis der Daten des Sozio-oekonomischen Panels (SOEP) der Jahre 1990–2013 der Einfluss der wahrgenommenen ökonomischen Unsicherheit auf die Geburtenentwicklung untersucht wird. Darüber hinaus wird die Frage in den Mittelpunkt gerückt, ob gruppenspezifische Unterschiede im Verhalten existieren und verschiedene Bevölkerungsgruppen (differenziert nach Bildung, Parität und Alter) anders auf ökonomische Unsicherheiten reagieren.
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Kreyenfeld, M. (2016). Economic Uncertainty and Fertility. In: Hank, K., Kreyenfeld, M. (eds) Social Demography Forschung an der Schnittstelle von Soziologie und Demografie. Kölner Zeitschrift für Soziologie und Sozialpsychologie. Springer VS, Wiesbaden. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-658-11490-9_4
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