Abstract
A one-dimensional hydrodynamic model that includes river ice formation and melting processes is developed and used to assess climate change impact on the ice regime of the Peace River in Alberta. The model employs an Eulerian frame of reference for both the flow hydrodynamics and the ice processes (ice cover formation and deterioration) and uses the characteristic-dissipative-Galerkin finite element method to solve the primary equations. Model calibration and validation results with historical data are presented; these indicate that the present model adequately simulates water temperature and ice front profiles. Higher air temperatures predicted by the CGCM2 climate model were used to generate future ice front profiles that correspond to the historical runs. This preliminary climate change impact analysis suggests that there is a significant potential for a shorter ice-covered season on the Peace River by the 21st century. At the Town of Peace River, the average total reduction in ice cover duration is 28 days (31%) under the scenario applied.
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© 2008 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg
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Andrishak, R., Hicks, F. (2008). Impact of Climate Change on the Peace River Thermal Ice Regime. In: Woo, Mk. (eds) Cold Region Atmospheric and Hydrologic Studies. The Mackenzie GEWEX Experience. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-540-75136-6_17
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-540-75136-6_17
Publisher Name: Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg
Print ISBN: 978-3-540-74927-1
Online ISBN: 978-3-540-75136-6
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