Detecting Cyber Security Threats in Weblogs Using Probabilistic Models

Abstract

Organizations and governments are becoming vulnerable to a wide variety of security breaches against their information infrastructure. The magnitude of this threat is evident from the increasing rate of cyber attacks against computers and critical infrastructure. Weblogs, or blogs, have also rapidly gained in numbers over the past decade. Weblogs may provide up-to-date information on the prevalence and distribution of various cyber security threats as well as terrorism events. In this paper, we analyze weblog posts for various categories of cyber security threats related to the detection of cyber attacks, cyber crime, and terrorism. Existing studies on intelligence analysis have focused on analyzing news or forums for cyber security incidents, but few have looked at weblogs. We use probabilistic latent semantic analysis to detect keywords from cyber security weblogs with respect to certain topics. We then demonstrate how this method can present the blogosphere in terms of topics with measurable keywords, hence tracking popular conversations and topics in the blogosphere. By applying a probabilistic approach, we can improve information retrieval in weblog search and keywords detection, and provide an analytical foundation for the future of security intelligence analysis of weblogs.