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Modeling High-Frequency Price Data with Bounded-Delay Hawkes Processes

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Mathematical and Statistical Methods for Actuarial Sciences and Finance

Abstract

Hawkes processes are a recent theme in the modeling of discrete financial events such as price jumps, trades and limit orders, basing the analysis on a continuous time formalism. We propose to simplify computation in Hawkes processes via a bounded delay density. We derive an Expectation-Maximization algorithm for maximum likelihood estimation, and perform experiments on high-frequency interbank currency exchange data. We find that while simplifying computation, the proposed model results in better generalization.

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Notes

  1. 1.

    www.truefx.com.

  2. 2.

    http://github.com/canerturkmen/fasthawkes.

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Correspondence to Ali Caner Türkmen .

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Türkmen, A.C., Cemgil, A.T. (2018). Modeling High-Frequency Price Data with Bounded-Delay Hawkes Processes. In: Corazza, M., Durbán, M., Grané, A., Perna, C., Sibillo, M. (eds) Mathematical and Statistical Methods for Actuarial Sciences and Finance. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-89824-7_90

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