Abstract
Within the landscape of global warming and energy transition, many countries have announced nationally aligned contributions in reducing their CO2 emissions (COP21 and 22, in 2015 and 2016 respectively). With the aim of evaluating the maturing and the success of these targets, technology roadmaps are necessary and serve a twofold function in the evaluative process. They serve as points of comparisons between each other and they are yardsticks by which to measure change for the 2050 horizon.
In this chapter, technology roadmaps are studied for three representative countries: China, France and the United States of America. The roadmaps cover the sectors responsible for the greatest part of CO2 emissions, i.e. the power, transport, residence and industry sectors. They also cover the impact of the main technologies, i.e. carbon capture and storage, energy efficiency and electric vehicles. This chapter thus assesses the future of energy trends and especially shows that the deployment of electric vehicles shall prove crucial for reaching the commitments towards contributions at national levels.
Parts of this chapter were published in Open Access in 2015 on https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01026302v3/document (Da Costa, P., Tian, W. (2015). A Sectoral Prospective Analysis of CO2 Emissions in China, USA and France, 2010-2050, HAL w.p.).
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Notes
- 1.
The details of our model can be found in Appendix 1.
- 2.
The details of parameter settings and electricity outputs can be found in Appendix 2.
- 3.
The projections of cars number in France and the US are more optimist than those of the (IEA 2014). The car number projections in different studies can be controversial in terms of various assumptions. For example the personal cars number in 2050 are projected to be about half of that in 2010 according to the projection of (Alazard-Toux et al. 2014). In this chapter, we project evolution of the car numbers in countries following their historical growth trends without involving other parameters in order to make a simplified and clear assumption.
- 4.
The projection of cars number in China in 2050 is at the same level than (IEA 2014) baseline.
- 5.
In 2013, the GHG emissions were 9% below 2005 level, according to the “U.S. Greenhouse Gas Inventory Report: 1990–2013”.
- 6.
In 2013, the CO2 intensity had been decreased by 28.5% compared to 2005. According to the “Plan for the Climate Change (2014–2020)” released in september in 2014 by the Chinese government, the objective of reducing CO2 intensity in 2020 was not changed.
- 7.
This CO2 emission is calculated with the baseline scenario of GDP according (HSBC 2011). Note the GDP using Purchasing Power Parities in China will be $57,784 billion in 2050, about six times of the 2010 level.
- 8.
In 2012, the CO2 emissions from the fuel combustions in France were 5.4% less than its 1990 level, according to (MEDDE and CDC Climat Recherche 2015).
- 9.
The share of oil is not presented because negligible compared to that of coal and gas, normally lower 5%.
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Acknowledgment
The authors wish to thank J.C. Bocquet and the LGI/CentraleSupélec members for constant supports and especially J. Liu for reviewing our regressions.
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Appendices
Appendix 1: The Framework of the Sectoral Emission Model
The technologies are shown in dotted line in the Fig. 12. We principally analyze the power and transport sectors here, where fuel mix, CCS and electric vehicles are three key factors for CO2 mitigation. Improved energy efficiency in the domestic and industrial sector also are contributors.
Schema of the sectoral emission model
Appendix 2: Simulation of Electricity Outputs
SVR is used to provide the underlying function in each country. In our work, the data sets are all normalized from the raw data. We use a sigmoid kernel function for electricity-production prediction. The Polynomial kernel Function is used as the kernel function for electricity output by trial and error. The values of the related hyper-parameters are also turned with a Grid Search. Details regarding the tuning of the parameters and kernel functions can be found in (Liu et al. 2013). The parameters are listed in the Table 3.
The electricity-production simulation results are based on the data of 1971–2010 (IEA 2012). Figures 13, 14 and 15 show the projection of electricity production in the three countries between 1981 and 2050. The X-axis is in years and the Y-axis is electricity output in tWh.
Electricity production in China 1981–2050
Electricity production in France 1981–2050
Electricity production in the US 1981–2050
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Tian, W., da Costa, P. (2018). A Prospective Analysis of CO2 Emissions for Electric Vehicles and the Energy Sectors in China, France and the US (2010–2050). In: da Costa, P., Attias, D. (eds) Towards a Sustainable Economy . Sustainability and Innovation. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-79060-2_3
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