Abstract
The shipping industry is today increasingly concerned with challenges related with sustainability. CO\(_2\) emissions from shipping, although they today contribute to less than 3% of the total anthropogenic emissions, are expected to rise in the future as a consequence of increased cargo volumes. On the other hand, for the 2 \(^\circ \)C climate goal to be achieved, emissions from shipping will be required to be reduced by as much as 80% by 2050. The power required to propel the ship through the water depends, among other parameters, on the trim of the vessel, i.e. on the difference between the ship’s draft in the fore and the aft of the ship. The optimisation of the trim can, therefore, lead to a reduction of the ship’s fuel consumption. Today, however, the trim is generally set to a fixed value depending on whether the ship is sailed in loaded or ballast conditions, based on results performed on model tests in basins. Nevertheless, the on-board monitoring systems, which produce a huge amount of historical data about the life of the vessels, lead to the application of state of the art data analytics techniques. The latter can be used to reduce the vessel consumption by means of optimising the vessel operational conditions. In this book chapter, we present the potential of data-driven based techniques for accurately predicting the influence of independent variables measured from the on board monitoring system and the fuel consumption of a specific case study vessel. In particular, we show that gray-box models (GBM) are able to combine the high prediction accuracy of black-box models (BBM) while reducing the amount of data required for training the model by adding a white-box model (WBM) component. The resulting GBM model is then used for optimising the trim of the vessel, suggesting that between 0.5 and 2.3% fuel savings can be obtained by appropriately trimming the ship, depending on the extent of the range for varying the trim.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Similar content being viewed by others
Notes
- 1.
The set \(\mathscr {T}_m\) must be a different set respect to \(\mathscr {D}_n\) which has been used to built the model \(\mathfrak {M}\) in the case of BBMs and GBMs [1].
- 2.
Note that some techniques use ERM and then, in order to improve the performance of the method, a post processing approach is adopted (i.e. pruning for Decision Tree [59]).
References
Anguita, D., Ghio, A., Oneto, L., Ridella, S.: In-sample and out-of-sample model selection and error estimation for support vector machines. IEEE Trans. Neural Netw.Learn. Syst. 23(9), 1390–1406 (2012)
Armstrong, V.N.: Vessel optimisation for low carbon shipping. Ocean Eng. 73, 195–207 (2013)
Baldi, F., Johnson, H., Gabrielii, C., Andersson, K.: Energy and exergy analysis of ship energy systems-the case study of a chemical tanker. In: 27th ECOS, International Conference on Efficiency, Cost, Optimization, Simulation and Environmental Impact of Energy Systems (2014)
Basin., D.W.T.M., Todd, F.H.: Series 60 Methodical Experiments with Models of Single-Screw Merchant Ships. Washington (1964)
Breiman, L.: Random forests. Mach. Learn. 45(1), 5–32 (2001)
Buhaug, O., Corbett, J.J., Endersen, O., Eyring, V., Faber, J., Hanayama, S., Lee, D.S., Lee, D., Lindstad, H., Markowska, A.Z., Mjelde, A., Nilsen, J., Palsson, C., Winebrake, J.J., Wu, W., Yoshida, K.: Second IMO GHG study 2009. Technical reports, International Maritime Organization (IMO) (2009)
Chang, Y.W., Lin, C.J.: Feature ranking using linear svm. Causation Predict. Chall. Chall. Mach. Learn. 2, 47 (2008)
Coraddu, A., Figari, M., Savio, S., Villa, D., Orlandi, A.: Integration of seakeeping and powering computational techniques with meteo-marine forecasting data for in-service ship energy assessment. In: Developments in Maritime Transportation and Exploitation of Sea Resources (2013)
Coraddu, A., Gaggero, S., Figari, M., Villa, D.: A new approach in engine-propeller matching. In: Sustainable Maritime Transportation and Exploitation of Sea Resources, vol. 1, pp. 631–637. CRC Press —Taylor and Francis Group (2011)
Coraddu, A., Gualeni, P., Villa, D.: Investigation about wave profile effects on ship sability. IMAM 2011 international maritime association of the mediterranean - sustainable maritime transportation and exploration of the sea. Resources 1, 143–149 (2011)
Coraddu, A., Oneto, L., Baldi, F., Anguita, D.: A ship efficiency forecast based on sensors data collection: improving numerical models through data analytics. In: OCEANS (2015)
Coraddu, A., Oneto, L., Ghio, A., Savio, S., Anguita, D., Figari, M.: Machine learning approaches for improving condition-based maintenance of naval propulsion plants. Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers, Part M: J. Eng. Marit. Environ. doi:10.1177/1475090214540874 (2014)
Corbett, J.J., Koehler, H.W.: Updated emissions from ocean shipping. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. 108(D20) (2003)
Cox, D.R.: Principles of Statistical Inference. Cambridge University Press (2006)
Cristianini, N., Shawe-Taylor, J.: An Introduction to Support Vector Machines and Oher Krnel-Bsed Larning Mthods. Cambridge Uiversity Pess (2000)
De Mol, C., De Vito, E., Rosasco, L.: Elastic-net regularization in learning theory. J. Complex. 25(2), 201–230 (2009)
Deng, H., Runger, G., Tuv, E.: Bias of importance measures for multi-valued attributes and solutions. Artif.l Neural Netw. Mach. Learn. ICANN 2011, 293–300 (2011)
Devanney, J.: The impact of the energy efficiency design index on very large crude carrier design and CO 2 emissions. Ships Offshore Struct. 6(4), 355–368 (2011)
Efron, B., Hastie, T., Johnstone, I., Tibshirani, R.: Least angle regression. Ann. Stat. 32(2), 407–499 (2004)
European Commission: Integrating maritime transport emissions in the EU’s greenhouse gas reduction policies (2013)
Evans, J.R., Lindner, C.H.: Business analytics: the next frontier for decision sciences. Decis. Line 43(2), 4–6 (2012)
Friedman, J., Hastie, T., Tibshirani, R.: The Elements of Statistical Learning. Springer series in statistics Springer, Berlin (2001)
Friedman, J., Hastie, T., Tibshirani, R.: Regularization paths for generalized linear models via coordinate descent. J. Stat. Softw. 33(1), 1 (2010)
Fumeo, E., Oneto, L., Anguita, D.: Condition based maintenance in railway transportation systems based on big data streaming analysis. In: INNS Conference on Big Data (2015)
García, S., Fernández, A., Luengo, J., Herrera, F.: Advanced nonparametric tests for multiple comparisons in the design of experiments in computational intelligence and data mining: experimental analysis of power. Inf. Sci. 180(10), 2044–2064 (2010)
Ghelardoni, L., Ghio, A., Anguita, D.: Energy load forecasting using empirical mode decomposition and support vector regression. IEEE Trans. Smart Grid 4(1), 549–556 (2013)
Gieseke, F., Polsterer, K.L., Oancea, C.E., Igel, C.: Speedy greedy feature selection: better redshift estimation via massive parallelism. In: European Symposium on Artificial Neural Networks, Computational Intelligence and Machine Learning (2014)
Good, P.: Permutation Tests: A Practical Guide To Resampling Methods For Testing Hypotheses. Springer Science & Business Media (2013)
Guldhammer, H., Harvald, S.A.: Ship Resistance: Effect of Form and Principal Dimensions. Akademisk Forlag (1974)
Guyon, I., Elisseeff, A.: An introduction to variable and feature selection. J. Mach. Learn. Res. 3, 1157–1182 (2003)
Györfi, L.: A Distribution-free Theory of Nonparametric Regression. Springer (2002)
Haas, P.J., Maglio, P.P., Selinger, P.G., Tan, W.C.: Data is dead... without what-if models. In: International Conference on Very Large Database (2011)
Hochkirch, K., Mallol, B.: On the importance of fullscale cfd simulations for ships. In: International Conference on Computer Applications and Information Technology in the Maritime Industries (2013)
Holtrop, J.: A statistical re-analysis of resistance and propulsion data. Int. Shipbuild. Prog. 31(363), 272–276 (1984)
Holtrop, J., Mennen, G.G.: An approximate power prediction method. Int. Shipbuild. Prog. 29, 166–171 (1982)
Hong, S.J.: Use of contextual information for feature ranking and discretization. IEEE Trans. Knowl. Data Eng. 9(5), 718–730 (1997)
Howison, S.: Practical Applied Mathematics: Modelling, Analysis, Approximation. 38. Cambridge University Press (2005)
Iakovatos, M.N., Liarokapis, D.E., Tzabiras, G.D.: Experimental investigation of the trim influence on the resistance characteristics of five ship models. In: Developments in Maritime Transportation and Exploitation of Sea Resources—Proceedings of IMAM 2013, 15th International Congress of the International Maritime Association of the Mediterranean (2014)
Jafarzadeh, S., Utne, I.B.: A framework to bridge the energy efficiency gap in shipping. Energy 69, 603–612 (2014)
Jardine, A.K., Lin, D., Banjevic, D.: A review on machinery diagnostics and prognostics implementing condition-based maintenance. Mech. Syst. Signal Process. 20(7), 1483–1510 (2006)
Josephson, J.R., Josephson, S.G.: AbductIve Inference: Computation, Philosophy, Technology. Cambridge University Press (1996)
Khor, Y.S., Xiao, Q.: CFD simulations of the effects of fouling and antifouling. Ocean Eng. 38(10), 1065–1079 (2011)
Kohavi, R., John, G.H.: Wrappers for feature subset selection. Artif. Intell. 97(1), 273–324 (1997)
Kohavi, R., et al.: A study of cross-validation and bootstrap for accuracy estimation and model selection. In: International Joint Conference on Artificial Intelligence (1995)
LaValle, S., Lesser, E., Shockley, R., Hopkins, M.S., Kruschwitz, N.: Big data, analytics and the path from insights to value. In: MIT Sloan Management Review (2013)
Lee, J., Yoo, S., Choi, S., Kim, H., Hong, C., Seo, J.: Development and application of trim optimization and parametric study using an evaluation system (solution) based on the rans for improvement of eeoi. In: International Conference on Ocean, Offshore and Arctic Engineering (2014)
Lee, W.S., Bartlett, P.L., Williamson, R.C.: The importance of convexity in learning with squared loss. IEEE Trans. Inf. Theory 44(5), 1974–1980 (1998)
Leifsson, L., Saevarsdottir, H., Sigurdsson, S., Vesteinsson, A.: Grey-box modeling of an ocean vessel for operational optimization. Simul. Model. Pract. Theory 16, 923–932 (2008)
Lewis, E.V.: Principles of Naval Architecture. Society of Naval Architects (1988)
Lützen, M., Kristensen, H.: A model for prediction of propulsion power and emissions—tankers and bulk carriers. In: World Maritime Technology Conference (2012)
MacKay, D.J.C.: Information Theory, Inference and Learning Algorithms. Cambridge University Press (2003)
Maritime Knowledge Centre: International shipping facts and figures - Information resources on trade, safety, security, environment. Technical reports, IMO (2012)
Meinshausen, N., Bühlmann, P.: Stability selection. J. R. Stat. Soc. Ser. B (Stat. Methodol.) 72(4), 417–473 (2010)
Moustafa, M.M., Yehia, W., Hussein, A.W.: Energy efficient operation of bulk carriers by trim optimization. In: International Conference on Ships and Shipping Research (2015)
Ng, A.Y.: Feature selection, l 1 vs. l 2 regularization, and rotational invariance. In: International Conference on Machine Learning (2004)
Oneto, L., Ghio, A., Ridella, S., Anguita, D.: Support vector machines and strictly positive definite kernel: the regularization hyperparameter is more important than the kernel hyperparameters. In: International Joint Conference on Neural Networks (2015)
Palmé, T., Breuhaus, P., Assadi, M., Klein, A., Kim, M.: New alstom monitoring tools leveraging artificial neural network technologies. In: Turbo Expo: Turbine Technical Conference and Exposition (2011)
Petersen, J.P., Winther, O., Jacobsen, D.J.: A machine-learning approach to predict main energy consumption under realistic operational conditions. Ship Tech. Res. 59(1), 64–72 (2012)
Quinlan, J.R.: Simplifying decision trees. Int. J. Man-Mach. Stud. 27(3), 221–234 (1987)
Reichel, M., Minchev, A., Larsen, N.: Trim optimisation—theory and practice. Int. J. Marine Navig. Saf. Sea Transp. 8(3), 387–392 (2014)
Scholkopf, B.: The kernel trick for distances. In: NEural Information Processing Systems (2001)
Schölkopf, B., Herbrich, R., Smola, A.J.: A generalized representer theorem. In: CoMputational Learning Theory (2001)
Schultz, M.P., Bendick, J., Holm, E.R., Hertel, W.M.: Economic impact of biofouling on a naval surface ship. Biofouling 27(1), 87–98 (2011)
Shao, W., Zhou, P., Thong, S.K.: Development of a novel forward dynamic programming method for weather routing. J. Mar. Sci. Tech. 17(2), 239–251 (2011)
Shawe-Taylor, J., Cristianini, N.: Kernel Methods for Pattern Analysis. Cambridge University Press (2004)
Simon, N., Friedman, J., Hastie, T., Tibshirani, R.: A sparse-group lasso. J. Comput. Graph. Stat. 22(2), 231–245 (2013)
Smith, T.W.P., Jalkanen, J.P., Anderson, B.A., Corbett, J.J., Faber, J., Hanayama, S., OKeeffe, E., Parker, S., Johansson, L., Aldous, L.: Third imo ghg study 2014. Technical report, International Maritime Organisation (2014)
Stewart, T.R., McMillan Jr, C.: Descriptive and prescriptive models for judgment and decision making: implications for knowledge engineering. In: Expert Judgment and Expert Systems (1987)
Stopford, M.: Maritime Economics. Routeledge, New York (2009)
Sugumaran, V., Muralidharan, V., Ramachandran, K.: Feature selection using decision tree and classification through proximal support vector machine for fault diagnostics of roller bearing. Mech. Syst. Signal Process. 21(2), 930–942 (2007)
Tibshirani, R.: Regression shrinkage and selection via the lasso. J. Royal Stat. Soc. Ser. B (Methodol.) pp. 267–288 (1996)
Tikhonov, A., Arsenin, V.Y.: Methods for solving ill-posed problems. Nauka, Moscow (1979)
UNCTAD: Review of maritime transport. Technical report, United Conference on Trade and Development (2012)
Vapnik, V.N.: Statistical Learning Theory. Wiley–Interscience (1998)
Von Karman, T., Gabrielli, G.: What price speed? specific power required for propulsion of vehicles. Mech. Eng. 72, 775–781 (1950)
Wang, H., Faber, J., Nelissen, D., Russell, B., St Amand, D.: Marginal Abatement Costs and Cost Effectiveness of Energy-Efficiency Measures. Technical report, Institute of Marine Engineering, Science and Technology (2010)
White, A.P., Liu, W.Z.: Technical note: bias in information-based measures in decision tree induction. Mach. Learn. 15(3), 321–329 (1994)
Widodo, A., Yang, B.S.: Support vector machine in machine condition monitoring and fault diagnosis. Mech. Syst. Signal Process. 21(6), 2560–2574 (2007)
Yoon, H., Yang, K., Shahabi, C.: Feature subset selection and feature ranking for multivariate time series. IEEE Trans. Knowl. Data Eng. 17(9), 1186–1198 (2005)
Young, D.M.: IterAtive Solution of Large Linear Systems. Dover Publications. Com (2003)
Zou, H., Hastie, T.: Regularization and variable selection via the elastic net. J. R. Stat. Soc.: Ser. B (Stat. Method.) 67(2), 301–320 (2005)
Zou, H., Hastie, T., Tibshirani, R.: On the degrees of freedom of the lasso. Ann. Stat 35(5), 2173–2192 (2007)
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2018 Springer International Publishing AG
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Coraddu, A., Oneto, L., Baldi, F., Anguita, D. (2018). Vessels Fuel Consumption: A Data Analytics Perspective to Sustainability. In: Cruz Corona, C. (eds) Soft Computing for Sustainability Science. Studies in Fuzziness and Soft Computing, vol 358. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-62359-7_2
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-62359-7_2
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, Cham
Print ISBN: 978-3-319-62358-0
Online ISBN: 978-3-319-62359-7
eBook Packages: EngineeringEngineering (R0)