Skip to main content

The 2016 US Primaries: Parties and Candidates in a World of Big Data

  • Chapter
  • First Online:
Political Marketing in the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election

Part of the book series: Palgrave Studies in Political Marketing and Management ((Palgrave Studies in Political Marketing and Management))

Abstract

This year, 2016, saw changes in political campaigning including increasing use of social media. Our research considers what such changes, including the increased availability of data, mean for our understanding of political marketing and primary elections. We suggest and discuss the implications that these changes may wrench control of brands away from parties toward candidates with identities independent of their party. We note that there are specific decision-making challenges for voters in primaries, and problems for candidates in being market oriented in a world of sequential elections. We ask whether voters forecast their own choices effectively, and, despite the strong feelings generated in primaries, our analysis shows that primaries may poorly predict general election performance.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this chapter

Chapter
USD 29.95
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
eBook
USD 44.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as EPUB and PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
Softcover Book
USD 59.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Compact, lightweight edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info
Hardcover Book
USD 59.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Durable hardcover edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Institutional subscriptions

References

  • Abramowitz, Alan I. 1989. Viability, Electability, and Candidate Choice in a Presidential Primary Election: A Test of Competing Models. The Journal of Politics 51 (4): 977–992.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Abramowitz, Alan, John McGlennon, and Ronald Rapoport. 1981. A Note on Strategic Voting in a Primary Election. The Journal of Politics 43 (3): 899–904.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Abramson, Paul R., John H. Aldrich, Phil Paolino, and David W. Rohde. 1992. ‘Sophisticated’ Voting in the 1988 Presidential Primaries. The American Political Science Review 86 (1): 55–69.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bartle, John. 2002. Market Analogies, the Marketing of Labour and the Origins of New Labour. In The Idea of Political Marketing, ed. N. O’Shaughnessy and S. C. Henneberg, 39–66. Westport: Praeger.

    Google Scholar 

  • Bendle, Neil T. 2014. Reference Dependence in Political Primaries. Journal of Political Marketing 13 (4): 307–333.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bendle, Neil, and June Cotte. 2016. Assumptions of Rationality in Political Marketing: The Case of the Republican Autopsy. Journal of Nonprofit & Public Sector Marketing 28 (1): 66–83.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bendle, Neil T and Mihaela-Alina Nastasoiu. 2014. Primary Elections And US Political Marketing, in Political Marketing In The United States, ed. J. Lees-Marshment, B. Conley and K. Cosgrove, 85–111. New York: Routledge.

    Google Scholar 

  • Bendle, Neil Thomas, and Matthew Thomson. 2016. Indirect Prejudice: The Danger in Considering Others’ Preferences During a Primary Election. Journal of Customer Behaviour 15 (3): 239–259.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bendle, Neil T., and Xin Wang. 2016. Uncovering the Message From the Mess of Big Data. Business Horizons 59 (1): 115–124.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Berg, Joyce E., Forrest D. Nelson, and Thomas A. Rietz. 2008. Prediction Market Accuracy in the Long Run. International Journal of Forecasting 24 (2): 285–300.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Caldwell, Leigh Ann. 2016. Charles Koch Explains to Donors Why He Won’t Support Trump. NBC News, August 1.

    Google Scholar 

  • Cherry, Todd L., and Stephan Kroll. 2003. Crashing the Party: An Experimental Investigation of Strategic Voting in Primary Elections. Public Choice 114 (3/4): 387–420.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cohen, Tom. 2012. Romney’s Big Day Marred by Etch A Sketch Remark. CNN.

    Google Scholar 

  • Cook, James M. 2016. Are American Politicians as Partisan Online as They are Offline? Networks in the U.S. Senate and Maine State Legislature. Policy & Internet 8 (1): 55–71.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Downs, Anthony. 1957. An Economic Theory of Democracy. New York: Harper & Row.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hotelling, Harold. 1929. Stability in Competition. The Economic Journal 39 (153): 41–57.

    Google Scholar 

  • Johnson, D. 2006. First Hurdles: The Evolution of the Pre-primary and Primary Stages of American Presidential Elections. In Winning Elections with Political Marketing, ed. P. Davies, and B.B. Newman. New York: The Haworth Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Knuckey, Jonathan, and Jennifer Lees-Marshment. 2005. American Political Marketing: George W. Bush and the Republican Party. In Political Marketing: A Comparative Perspective, ed. D.G. Lilleker and J. Lees-Marshment. Manchester: Manchester University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kunda, Z. 1990. The Case for Motivated Reasoning. Psychological Bulletin 108 (3): 480–498.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Marland, Alex. 2016. Brand Command: Canadian Politics and Democracy in the Age of Message Control. Vancouver, BC: UBC Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Parker, Brian T. 2012. Candidate Brand Equity Valuation: A Comparison of U.S. Presidential Candidates During the 2008 Primary Election Campaign. Journal of Political Marketing 11 (3): 208–230.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ridout, Travis N., Brandon Rottinghaus, and Nathan Hosey. 2009. Following the Rules? Candidate Strategy in Presidential Primaries. Social Science Quarterly 90 (4): 777–795.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • RNC. 2013. The Growth and Opportunity Project. Republican National Committee.

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Neil Bendle .

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

© 2018 The Author(s)

About this chapter

Cite this chapter

Bendle, N., Ryoo, J., Nastasoiu, A. (2018). The 2016 US Primaries: Parties and Candidates in a World of Big Data. In: Gillies, J. (eds) Political Marketing in the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election. Palgrave Studies in Political Marketing and Management. Palgrave Macmillan, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-59345-6_5

Download citation

Publish with us

Policies and ethics