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Approaches to Modeling Landscape-Scale Drought-Induced Forest Mortality

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Simulation Modeling of Forest Landscape Disturbances

Abstract

Drought stress is an important cause of tree mortality in forests, and drought-induced disturbance events are projected to become more common due to climate change. Landscape Disturbance and Succession Models (LDSM) are becoming widely used to project climate change effects on forests, including potential interactions with natural and anthropogenic disturbances, and to explore the efficacy of alternative management actions to mitigate consequences of global changes on forests and ecosystem services. Recent studies in which drought mortality effects were incorporated into LDSMs project significant potential changes in forest composition and carbon storage, largely due to differential effects of drought on tree species and interactions with other disturbance agents. In this chapter, we review how drought affects forest ecosystems and the different ways drought effects have been modeled (both spatially and aspatially) in the past. Building on those efforts, we describe several approaches to modeling drought effects in LDSMs, discuss advantages and shortcomings of each, and include two case studies for illustration. The first approach features the use of empirically derived relationships between measures of drought and the loss of tree biomass to drought-induced mortality. The second uses deterministic rules of species mortality for given drought events to project changes in species composition and forest distribution. A third approach is more mechanistic, simulating growth reductions and death caused by water stress. Because modeling of drought effects in LDSMs is still in its infancy, and because drought is expected to play an increasingly important role in forest health, further development of modeling drought–forest dynamics is urgently needed.

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Acknowledgments

We thank E. Qualtierre, J. Bradford, A. Perera, B. Sturtevant and L. Buse for reviews that helped improve the manuscript. Funding support for both authors was provided by the Northern Research Station of the USDA Forest Service, with additional support for Shinneman by the U.S. Geological Survey. We thank Sue Lietz for technical assistance. Any use of trade, product, or firm names is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the U.S. Government.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Institute for Applied Ecosystem Studies, Northern Research Station, USDA Forest Service, 5985 Highway K, Rhinelander, WI, 54501, USA

    Eric J. Gustafson

  2. U.S. Geological Survey, Forest and Rangeland Ecosystem Science Center, 970 Lusk St., Boise, ID, 83706, USA

    Douglas J. Shinneman

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  1. Eric J. Gustafson
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Correspondence to Eric J. Gustafson .

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Editors and Affiliations

  1. Ontario Forest Research Institute, Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources and Forestry, Sault Ste Marie, Ontario, Canada

    Ajith H. Perera

  2. Northern Research Station, USDA Forestry Service, Rhinelander, Wisconsin, USA

    Brian R. Sturtevant

  3. Ontario Forest Research Institute, Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources and Forestry, Sault Sainte Marie, Ontario, Canada

    Lisa J. Buse

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Gustafson, E.J., Shinneman, D.J. (2015). Approaches to Modeling Landscape-Scale Drought-Induced Forest Mortality. In: Perera, A., Sturtevant, B., Buse, L. (eds) Simulation Modeling of Forest Landscape Disturbances. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-19809-5_3

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