Abstract
In many regions of the world, several natural hazards may act within the same time frame. Neglecting or underestimating interactions among different hazards may lead to underestimation of the overall risk and further to poor risk management. Implementation of effective and efficient risk management strategies requires that all relevant threats are assessed and considered. However, due to the differing characteristics of hazards, few quantitative models exist that can perform all the computations required for a complete multi-risk assessment. In this paper, a quantitative multi-risk management model using Bayesian networks (BaNMuR) is proposed, which could account for the assessment of cascading hazards, time-dependent vulnerability estimation and selection of optimal risk management strategies. The model was developed as part of the EU FP7 Collaborative Research Project MATRIX. An application example of the BaNMuR model for assessing the risk of tsunami triggered by rockslide is presented in the paper. The proposed multi-risk modelling evaluates the effect of interaction between single risks quantitatively, provides a more rational estimate of multiple risks and helps the decision-makers choose the best risk reduction strategy.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Ang AH-S, Tang WH (2007) Probability concepts in engineering: emphasis on applications in civil and environmental engineering. Wiley, New York
Eidsvig UK, Lacasse S, Nadim F (2009). Event tree analysis of hazard and risk associated with the Åknes roskslide. ICG/NGI Report 20061032-1
Einstein HH, Sousa RL, Karam K, Manzella I, Kveldsvik V (2010) Rock slopes from mechanics to decision making. In: Jian Zhao, Vincent Labiouse, Jean-Paul Dudt, Jean-Francois Mathier (eds) Rock mechanics in civil and environmental engineering. CRC Press, London, pp 3–13
Hugin Expert 7.8. http://www.hugin.com/productsservices/demo/hugin-lite. Accessed 10 Sep 2013
Lacasse S, Eidsvig UK, Nadim F, Høeg K, Blikra LH (2008) Event tree analysis of Åknes rock slide hazard. In: Proceedings of the 4th Canadian conference on geohazards : from causes to management. Presse de l’Université Laval, Québec, 594 p
Nadim F, Liu ZQ (2013) Quantitative risk assessment for earthquake-triggered landslides using Bayesian network. In: Proceedings of the 18th international conference on soil mechanics and geotechnical engineering, Paris
Acknowledgments
The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Community’s Seventh Framework Programme [FP7/2007-2013] under Grant Agreement no 265138 New Multi-HAzard and MulTi-RIsK Assessment MethodS for Europe (MATRIX).
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2014 Springer International Publishing Switzerland
About this paper
Cite this paper
Liu, Z., Nadim, F., Vangelsten, B.V., Eidsvig, U., Kalsnes, B. (2014). Quantitative Multi-risk Modelling and Management Using Bayesian Networks. In: Sassa, K., Canuti, P., Yin, Y. (eds) Landslide Science for a Safer Geoenvironment. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-05050-8_119
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-05050-8_119
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, Cham
Print ISBN: 978-3-319-05049-2
Online ISBN: 978-3-319-05050-8
eBook Packages: Earth and Environmental ScienceEarth and Environmental Science (R0)