Comparative Study of Grey Forecasting Model and ARMA Model on Beijing Electricity Consumption Forecasting

Abstract

With the rapid development of the national economy, the power consumption is increasing. It is of great significance that how to make an accurate prediction of electricity consumption. Through the prediction model, the energy structure can be adjusted and the energy policies can be made to guide power consumption. In this paper, the Beijing electricity consumption is forecasted with Grey Prediction model and ARMA model based on the real data over years. Next these two models are compared. It can be seen from the comparison that the GM is more suitable for the prediction of electricity consumption and the prediction accuracy can be increased to 98.2 %. Based on the theoretical study, Beijing electricity consumption is well forecasted to support the government decision making.