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Analysis of Low-Flow Indices in the Era of Climate Change: An Application of CanESM2 Model

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Ecological Footprints of Climate Change

Abstract

Low-flow hydrology shifts can change streamflow criteria such as dissolved oxygen content, nutrient concentration, and terrestrial and aquatic qualities, as well as different water and wastewater functions, including water allocation, power plant generation, navigation, and waste load allocation. Climate changes play a significant role in the low-flow hydrology regime among various factors. Therefore, sustainable water resources planning and restoration of ecosystems depend on low-flow extremes and their consequent impacts. This research aimed to assess the consequences of climate change on the low-flow indices (7Q10, Q80) in a subbasin so-called Gharesou located in Iran employing the HEC-HMS rainfall-runoff modeling and the general population circulation outputs (CanESM2). For this purpose, the precipitation, temperature, and streamflow datasets in 1970–2000 were applied in the current chapter. The results revealed that the subbasin would experience a reduced average flow in all scenarios for the low-flow seasons. The 7Q10 index approached 0.008 m3/s and zero for the SDSM model and change factor, respectively, for the future period; these values were 0.724 and 1.429 m3/s in the corresponding historical periods, respectively. Furthermore, Q80 decreased from 4.27 to 0.1 for SDSM and from 5.3 to 0.3 m3/s for the change factor method in future projection studies.

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Correspondence to Mohammadreza Goodarzi .

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Goodarzi, M., Faraji, A. (2022). Analysis of Low-Flow Indices in the Era of Climate Change: An Application of CanESM2 Model. In: Chatterjee, U., Akanwa, A.O., Kumar, S., Singh, S.K., Dutta Roy, A. (eds) Ecological Footprints of Climate Change . Springer Climate. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-15501-7_4

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