Abstract
In a warmer climate, the consequences of future precipitation changes could be much more severe than nowadays. Therefore, assessment of these future changes is an issue worthy of consideration, facilitating proper adaptation to water-related problems. In this study, ensembles of eight regional climate models for two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) and two-time horizons (2021–2050 and 2071–2100) were used to gain insight into changes in precipitation relating to the reference period of 1971–2000. Analyses were made of various indices, such as annual totals, maximum 24 h total, 3-day total and the number of three-day periods with precipitation totals greater than 50 mm; consecutive wet days (CWD) and the number of wet periods longer than 5 days; simple daily intensity index (SDII); consecutive dry days; number of dry and hot days and also number of days with intense precipitation equal or above the thresholds of 20 mm per day. It was found that most indices based on the models under examination will increase and this applies to both mean annual precipitation totals as well as in intense precipitation and scarcity of water. Future changes will be more severe for higher RCP and the far time horizon.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Bates BC, Kundzewicz ZW, Wu S, Palutikof JP (eds.) (2008) Climate change and water. Technical Paper of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC Secretariat, Geneva, Switzerland, p 210
Christensen JH, Christensen OB (2007) A summary of the PRUDENCE model projections of changes in European climate by the end of this century. Clim Change 81:7–30
Hay JE, Easterling D, Ebi KL, Kitoh A, Parry M (2016) Conclusion to the special issue: Observed and projected changes in weather and climate extremes. Weather and Climate Extremes 11:103–105
IPCC (1992) Climate change: The 1990 and 1992 IPCC Assessments Report. J.T. Houghton (ed.), Cambridge, UK, 212 pp
IPCC (2007) Climate change 2007: synthesis report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. In: Pachauri RK, Reisinger A. (eds) IPCC, Geneva, 104 pp
Jacob D, Petersen J, Eggert B, Alias A, Christensen OB, Bouwer LM, Braun A, Colette A, Déqué M, Georgievski G, Georgopoulou E (2014) EURO-CORDEX: new high-resolution climate change projections for European impact research. Reg Environ Change 4(2):563–578
Kamiguchi K, Kitoh A, Uchiyama T, Mizuta R, Noda A (2006) Changes in precipitation-based extremes indices due to global warming projected by a global 20-km-mesh atmospheric model. Sola 2:064–067
Lehtonen I, Ruosteenoja K, Jylhä K (2014) Projected changes in European extreme precipitation indices on the basis of global and regional climate model ensembles. Int J Climatol 34:1208–1222
Liszewska, M, Osuch M (1999) Analiza wyników globalnych modeli klimatu dla Europy Środkowej i Polski. (Analysis of the results of global climate models for Central Europe and Poland). In: Zmiany i zmienność klimatu Polski (Change and variability of Polish climate) Polish Conference, Łódź, 4–6 November, 1999:129–142 (in Polish)
Mezghani A, Dobler A, Haugen JE (2016) CHASEPL Climate Projections: 5-km Gridded Daily Precipitation & Temperature Dataset (CPLCP-GDPT5). Norwegian Meteor. Inst. Dataset., https://doi.org/10.4121/uuid:e940ec1a-71a0-449e-bbe3-29217f2ba31d
Nakicenovic N, Alcamo J, Davis G, de Vries B, Fenhann J, Gaffin S, Gregory K, Grübler A, Jung TY, Kram T, La Rovere EL, Michaelis L, Mori S, Morita T, Pepper W, Pitcher H, Price L, Riahi K, Roehrl A, Rogner H-H, Sankovski A, Schlesinger M, Shukla P, Smith S, Swart R, van Rooijen S, Victor N, Dadi Z (2000) IPCC special report on emission scenarios. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge and New York, p 599
Osuch M, Romanowicz RJ, Lawrence D, Wong WK (2016) Trends in projections of standardized precipitation indices in a future climate in Poland. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci, 20, 1947–1969, www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/20/1947/2016/
Parry ML (ed) (2000) Assessment of potential effects and adaptations for climate change in Europe: The ACACIA Project. University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK, Jackson Environment Institute, p 320
Pińskwar I (2010) Projekcje zmian w ekstremach opadowych w Polsce. (Projections of changes in extreme precipitation in Poland) Monografia KGW PAN, 34 (in Polish)
Rajczak J, Schär C (2017) Projections of future precipitation extremes over Europe: a multimodel assessment of climate simulations. J Geophys Res Atmos 122:10,773-10, 800 https://doi.org/10.1002/2017jd027176
Schulzweida U, Kornblueh L, Quast R (2012) CDO User’s Guide (Version 1.5.9)
Tuomenvirta H, Jylhä K, Kilpeläinen T (2006) Extreme precipitation events in the Baltic Sea catchment—observations and future projections. Abstract. International Conference: Extreme hydrometeorological events in Poland and their impacts—European context. Warsaw, 7–9 December, 82–84
van der Linden P, Mitchell JFB (eds.) (2009) ENSEMBLES: climate change and its impacts: summary of research and results from the ENSEMBLES project. Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, Exeter EX1 3 PB, UK. 160 pp
Zhang X, Hegerl GC, Seneviratne SI, Stewart R, Zwiers FW, Alexander LV (2013) WCRP grand challenge: understanding and predicting weather and climate extremes http://www.wcrpclimate.org/gc-extremes-documents
Acknowledgements
Support of the project CHASE-PL (Climate change impact assessment for selected sectors in Poland) of the Polish–Norwegian Research Programme operated by the National Centre for Research and Development (NCBiR) under the Norwegian Financial Mechanism 2009–2014 in the frame of Project Contract No. Pol Nor/200799/90/2014 is gratefully acknowledged.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2021 Springer Nature Switzerland AG
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Pińskwar, I., Choryński, A. (2021). Projections of Precipitation Changes in Poland. In: Falarz, M. (eds) Climate Change in Poland. Springer Climate. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-70328-8_22
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-70328-8_22
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, Cham
Print ISBN: 978-3-030-70327-1
Online ISBN: 978-3-030-70328-8
eBook Packages: Earth and Environmental ScienceEarth and Environmental Science (R0)