Abstract
The present paper examines projected future changes in the mean and extreme thermal conditions for Poland. The study uses a set of eight regional climate models from EURO-CORDEX experiment for two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) and two future time horizons (2021–2050 and 2071–2100), with reference to the period of 1971–2000. In this study, the mean value of temperature and its absolute extreme (maximum and minimum) values, as well as indexes related to specific thermal conditions, were considered. According to this study, all models have shown an agreement on a systematic upward trend in the mean temperature, both for the near and far future and for both RCPs. It is projected that in the future the extreme hot conditions not only will be hotter, but they will also last longer and/or appear more frequently. In contrast, frosty periods and their frequency will decrease. As a rule, the thermal changes in the future are more pronounced for the far future (2071–2100) than for the near future (2021–2050) and more for the RCP8.5 scenario than for RCP4.5.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Brzóska B, Jaczewski A (2017) Przyszłe zmiany wybranych wskaźników klimatycznych dla Polski na podstawie wyników dynamicznego downscalingu (Future changes of selected climate indices in Poland based on the results of dynamical downscaling). Prace Geograficzne UJ 149:7–14. https://doi.org/10.4467/20833113pg.17.007.6923
Clarke LE, Edmonds JA, Jacoby HD, Pitcher HM, Reilly JM, Richels RG (2007) Scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions and atmospheric concentrations, Sub-report 2.1a, U.S. Climate Change Science Program. Synthesis and Assessment Product 2.1a, CCSP, Washington, 154 pp
Fischer EM, Schär C (2009) Future changes in daily summer temperature variability: driving processes and role for temperature extremes. Clim Dyn 32. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-008-0473-8
IPCC (2000) Special report on emission scenarios In: N Nakicenovic et al.(eds). Cambridge University Press, New York, 599 pp
Jacobs D, Petersen J, Eggert B, Alias A, Christensen OB, Bouwer LM, Braun A, Colette A, Déqué M, Georgievski G, Georgopoulou E (2014) EURO-CORDEX: new high-resolution climate change projections for European impact research. Reg Environ Change 4(2):563–578
Jaczewski A, Brzoska B, Wibig J (2014) Comparison of temperature indices for three IPCC SRES scenarios based on RegCM simulations for Poland in 2011–2030 period. Meteorol Z 24:99–106. https://doi.org/10.1127/metz/2014/0457
Kjellström E, Nikulin G, Hansson U, Strandberg G, Ullerstig A (2011) 21st century changes in the European climate: uncertainties derived from an ensemble of regional climate model simulations. Tellus 63A:24–40
Liszewska M, Osuch M (1999) Analiza wyników globalnych modeli klimatu dla Europy Środkowej i Polski (Analysis of the results of global climate models for Central Europe and Poland). In: Zmiany i zmienność klimatu Polski (Change and variability of Polish climate) Polish Conference, Łódź, 4–6 November, 1999, pp 129–142 (in Polish)
Mezghani A, Dobler A, Haugen JE, Benestad RE, Parding KM, Piniewski M, Kardel I, Kundzewicz ZW (2017) CHASE-PL Climate Projection dataset over Poland-Bias adjustment of EURO-CORDEX simulations. Sci Data Discuss, Earth Syst. https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2017-51
Nikulin G, Kjellstro EM, Hansson U, Strandberg G, Ullerstig A (2011) Evaluation and future projections of temperature, precipitation and wind extremes over Europe in an ensemble of regional climate simulations. Tellus A DynMeteorol Oceanogr 63(1):41–55. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0870.2010.00466.x
Parry ML (ed) (2000) Assessment of potential effects and adaptations for climate change in Europe: The ACACIA Project. Jackson Environment Institute, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK, 320 pp
Piniewski M, Mezghani A, Szcześniak M, Kundzewicz ZW (2017) Regional projections of temperature and precipitation changes: Robustness and uncertainty aspects. Meteorol Z 26(2):223–234. https://doi.org/10.1127/metz/2017/0813
Romanowicz RJ, Bogdanowicz E, Debele SE, Doroszkiewicz J, Hisdal H, Lawrence D, Meresa HK, Napiórkowski JJ, Osuch M, Strupczewski WG, Wilson D, Wong WK (2016) Climate change impact on hydrological extremes: preliminary results from the Polish-Norwegian project. Acta Geophys 64(2):477–509. https://doi.org/10.1515/acgeo-2016-0009
Schulzweida U (2019) CDO User Guide (Version 1.9.6) http://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.2558193
Szwed M, Graczyk D (2006) Thermal seasons in Poland—the present and the future based on HadRM3-PRECIS results. Papers on Global Change 13:59–77
Szwed M, Graczyk D, Pińskwar I, Kundzewicz ZW (2007) Projections of climate extremes in Poland. Geographia Polonica 80(2):191–202
Szwed M, Karg G, Pińskwar I, Radziejewski M, Graczyk D, Kędziora A, Kundzewicz ZW (2010) Climate change and its effect on agriculture, water resources and human health sectors in Poland. Nat Hazards Earth Syst Sci 10:1725–1737. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-10-1725-2010
Van der Linden P, Mitchell JFB (eds) (2009) ENSEMBLES: climate change and its impacts: summary of research and results from the ENSEMBLES project. Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, Exeter EX1 3 PB, UK. 160 pp
Acknowledgements
Support of the project CHASE-PL (Climate change impact assessment for selected sectors in Poland) of the Polish–Norwegian Research Programme operated by the National Centre for Research and Development (NCBiR) under the Norwegian Financial Mechanism 2009–2014 in the frame of Project Contract No. Pol Nor/200799/90/2014 is gratefully acknowledged.
Author thanks to Iwona Pińskwar for technical support using Climate Data Operator (CDO) software.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2021 Springer Nature Switzerland AG
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Szwed, M. (2021). Projections of Temperature Changes in Poland. In: Falarz, M. (eds) Climate Change in Poland. Springer Climate. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-70328-8_21
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-70328-8_21
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, Cham
Print ISBN: 978-3-030-70327-1
Online ISBN: 978-3-030-70328-8
eBook Packages: Earth and Environmental ScienceEarth and Environmental Science (R0)