Abstract
Planning health and social care for ageing populations requires accurate forecasts of future need based upon reliable estimates of disease and disability burden, aetiology and progression, and whether years of healthy life are keeping pace with gains in life expectancy. In this chapter we describe the different forecasting models that been developed to estimate the future numbers with disability and/or health expectancies. The chapter comprises six sections. First, we briefly describe how forecasting health trends add substance to population projections and then we briefly describe the process of reviewing the published literature for the forecasting models. Sections three to five describe the models found and their key findings in three categories: models based on cross-sectional data, macrosimulation models, and microsimulation models. The chapter concludes with a discussion of the future research avenues for estimating future trends in health expectancy.
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Jagger, C., Kingston, A. (2020). Forecasting Health Expectancy – What the Future Might Hold. In: Jagger, C., Crimmins, E.M., Saito, Y., De Carvalho Yokota, R.T., Van Oyen, H., Robine, JM. (eds) International Handbook of Health Expectancies. International Handbooks of Population, vol 9. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-37668-0_10
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-37668-0_10
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