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Drought Forecasting Using Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) and Empirical Wavelet Transform (EWT)-GPR in Gua Musang

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Emerging Trends in Intelligent Computing and Informatics (IRICT 2019)

Part of the book series: Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing ((AISC,volume 1073))

Abstract

Drought forecasting is important in preparing for drought and its mitigation plan. This study focuses on the investigating the performance of Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) and Empirical Wavelet Transform-Gaussian Process Regression (EWT-GPR) in forecasting drought using Standard Precipitation Index (SPI). Daily rainfall data from Gua Musang, Kelantan from 1975 to 2008 was used in this study. SPI data of 3, 6, 9, and 12 months were then calculated using the rainfall data. EWT was employed to decompose the time series into several finite modes. EWT was used to create Intrinsic Mode Functions (IMF) which are used to create ARIMA models. The objective of this study is to compare the effectiveness of the proposed method against GPR model in the accuracy of forecasting drought in Arau, Malaysia. It was found that the proposed model performed better compared to GPR model in all SPI studied.

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Acknowledgement

The authors would like to express their deepest gratitude to Research Management Center (RMC), Universiti Teknologi Malaysia (UTM), Ministry of Higher Education (MOHE) and Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovation (MOSTI) for their financial support under Grant Vot 4F875.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. School of Computing, Faculty of Engineering, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, Skudai, Malaysia

    Muhammad Akram Shaari & Ruhaidah Samsudin

  2. Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, Skudai, Malaysia

    Ani Shabri Ilman

  3. Northern Border University, Arar, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

    Abdulsamad E. Yahya

Authors
  1. Muhammad Akram Shaari
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  2. Ruhaidah Samsudin
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  3. Ani Shabri Ilman
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  4. Abdulsamad E. Yahya
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Ruhaidah Samsudin .

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

  1. College of Computer Science and Engineering, Taibah University, Medina, Saudi Arabia

    Faisal Saeed

  2. School of Computing, Universiti Utara Malaysia (UUM), Sintok, Kedah Darul Aman, Malaysia

    Fathey Mohammed

  3. Management of Information Systems Department College of Business Administration, Taibah University, Yanbu, Saudi Arabia

    Nadhmi Gazem

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Shaari, M.A., Samsudin, R., Ilman, A.S., Yahya, A.E. (2020). Drought Forecasting Using Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) and Empirical Wavelet Transform (EWT)-GPR in Gua Musang. In: Saeed, F., Mohammed, F., Gazem, N. (eds) Emerging Trends in Intelligent Computing and Informatics. IRICT 2019. Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing, vol 1073. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-33582-3_15

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