Abstract
Limitations associated with General Circulation Models, particularly in societal impact assessment and local and regional climate change policies, have led some researchers to seek alternative methods for assessing the potential impacts of climate change. One of these methods, forecasting by analogy (FBA), is based on the premise that past responses to extreme climate-related events provide a first approximation of how society might respond to the effects of climate change. Since its development and initial application in 1987, FBA has been used to assess climate-related impacts in various economic sectors and ecosystems. The potential value and use of FBA in impact assessment, the use of analogs in the physical sciences, and the shortcomings and potential problems associated with the approach are discussed. Some cases in which the FBA approach was applied to marine fisheries to assess the impacts of climate change and climate variability are studied.
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© 1996 Springer-Verlag New York, Inc.
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Glantz, M.H. (1996). Forecasting by Analogy: Local Responses to Global Climate Change. In: Smith, J.B., et al. Adapting to Climate Change. Springer, New York, NY. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4613-8471-7_35
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4613-8471-7_35
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