Malaria risk scenarios for Kisumu, Kenya: blending qualitative and quantitative information

The processes in today’s world – including socioeconomic change, demographic change and environmental change – oblige us to broaden our conception of the determinants of population health (Martens and Rotmans 2002). Although the speed and direction of these changes involve great uncertainty, they will for certain affect the future prevalence of all kinds of diseases that may pose a threat to the world’s future prosperity. The continuous interaction between a number of factors and processes at different spatial- and temporal-scale levels per definition makes human health, and e.g. malaria, complex to analyse.