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Earthquake Occurrence and Mechanisms, Stochastic Models for

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Encyclopedia of Complexity and Systems Science

Definition of the Subject

Stochastic models for earthquake mechanism and occurrence combine a model for the physical processes generating the observable data (catalogdata) with a model for the errors, or uncertainties, in our ability to predict those observables. Such models are essential to properly quantify theuncertainties in the model, and to develop probability forecasts. They also help to isolate those features of earthquake mechanism and occurrence whichcan be attributed to mass action effects of a statistical mechanical character. We do not consider in this paper applications of the models toearthquake engineering and insurance.

Introduction

The complexity of earthquake phenomena, the difficulty of understanding and monitoring the processes involved in their occurrence, and theconsequent difficulty of accurately predicting them, are now widely accepted points of view. What are stochastic models, and what role do they play inaiding our understanding of such phenomena?

The...

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Abbreviations

Stochastic:

occurring by chance;

Stochastic process:

physical or other process evolving in time governed in part by chance.

Earthquake mechanism:

physical processes causing the occurrence of an earthquake.

Independent events:

events not affecting each other's probability of occurrence.

Branching process:

process of ancestors and offspring, as in the model of nuclear fission.

Point process:

stochastic process of point‐events in time or space.

Probability forecast:

prediction of the probability distribution of the time and other features of some future event, as distinct from a forecast for the time (etc.) of the event itself.

Model test:

a statistical test for the extent to which a stochastic model is supported by the relevant data.

Precursory signal:

observed quantity which affects the occurrence probability of a future event (earthquake).

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Acknowledgments

I am very grateful to friends and colleagues, especially David Harte, Mark Bebbington, David Rhoades and Yehuda Ben-Zion, for helpfuldiscussions, correcting errors and plugging gaps.

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  1. Statistical Research Associates and Victoria University, Wellington, New Zealand

    David Vere-Jones

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  1. David Vere-Jones
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  1. RAMTECH LIMITED, 122 Escalle Lane, Larkspur, CA, 94939, USA

    Robert A. Meyers Ph. D. (Editor-in-Chief) (Editor-in-Chief)

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Vere-Jones, D. (2009). Earthquake Occurrence and Mechanisms, Stochastic Models for. In: Meyers, R. (eds) Encyclopedia of Complexity and Systems Science. Springer, New York, NY. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-0-387-30440-3_155

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