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Prediction of Recurrence Pattern of Pancreatic Cancer Post-Pancreatic Surgery Using Histology-Based Supervised Machine Learning Algorithms: A Single-Center Retrospective Study

  • Pancreatic Tumors
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Abstract

Background

Patients with pancreatic cancer (PC) have poor prognosis and a high incidence of recurrence. Since further treatment is applicable for specific recurrent events, it is important to predict recurrence patterns after surgery. This study aimed to identify and predict early and late recurrence patterns of PC using a histology-based machine learning model.

Patients and Methods

Patients who underwent upfront curative surgery for PC between 2001 and 2014 were included. The timing of recurrence and prognosis of each first recurrence site were examined. A histology-based supervised machine learning method, which combined convolutional neural networks and random forest, was used to predict the recurrence and respective sites of metastasis. Accuracy was evaluated using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC).

Results

In total, 524 patients were included. Recurrence in the liver accounted for 47.8% of all recurrence events in the first year after surgery. Meanwhile, recurrence in the lung occurred later and could become apparent more than 5 years post-surgery, with indications for further surgery. In terms of substantial distant organ metastases, liver and lung metastases were identified as representative early and late recurrence events. The predictive AUCs of the machine learning model for training and test data were 1.000 and 0.861, respectively, and for predicting nonrecurrence were 1.000 for both.

Conclusions

We identified the liver and lung as early and late recurrence sites, which could be distinguished with high probability using a machine learning model. Prediction of recurrence sites using this model may be useful for further treatment of patients with PC.

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Acknowledgement

The authors would like to thank Hiroshi Yoko-o and Tomoyo Kakita for their excellent technical assistance. We also like to thank Editage (www.editage.com) for English language editing.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Division of Hepatobiliary and Pancreatic Surgery, Cancer Institute Hospital of the Japanese Foundation for Cancer Research, Koto-ku, Tokyo, Japan

    Koki Hayashi MD, Yoshihiro Ono MD, PhD, Atsushi Oba MD, PhD, Hiromichi Ito MD, FACS, Takafumi Sato MD, PhD, Yosuke Inoue MD, PhD, Akio Saiura MD, PhD & Yu Takahashi MD, PhD

  2. Division of Pathology, Department of Pathology, Cancer Institute, Cancer Institute Hospital of the Japanese Foundation for Cancer Research, Koto-ku, Tokyo, Japan

    Manabu Takamatsu MD, PhD

  3. Department of Hepatobiliary-Pancreatic Surgery, Juntendo University Hospital, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo, Japan

    Akio Saiura MD, PhD

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  1. Koki Hayashi MD
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  2. Yoshihiro Ono MD, PhD
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  4. Atsushi Oba MD, PhD
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Correspondence to Manabu Takamatsu MD, PhD or Yu Takahashi MD, PhD.

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Hayashi, K., Ono, Y., Takamatsu, M. et al. Prediction of Recurrence Pattern of Pancreatic Cancer Post-Pancreatic Surgery Using Histology-Based Supervised Machine Learning Algorithms: A Single-Center Retrospective Study. Ann Surg Oncol 29, 4624–4634 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1245/s10434-022-11471-x

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1245/s10434-022-11471-x

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