Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Our rule is only temporary: promises of the military after a coup and their influence on domestic and international reactions

  • Original Article
  • Published:
International Politics Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

The likelihood that a military coup may result in unfavorable reactions, such as domestic citizen protests, international condemnation, and sanctions, varies depending on the circumstances. How can we explain such variations in domestic and international reactions? This study focuses on the presence or absence of postcoup proclamations by the military that their rule would only be temporary and theorizes the impact of these promises on domestic and international reactions to the coup. Specifically, this study hypothesizes that postcoup promises suppress anti-regime protests and negative reactions from the international community, but this effect is limited to the post-Cold War period. These arguments have been verified through statistical analyses using a newly constructed dataset of postcoup proclamations and illustrative case analyses.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5

Similar content being viewed by others

Notes

  1. United Nations. ‘General Assembly President Expresses Outrage at Coup d’État in Honduras, Says Crucial for World Community to "Stand as One" in Condemnation.’ 29 June, 2009. https://press.un.org/en/2009/ga10840.doc.html.

  2. Published by the Cline Center for Advanced Social Research. https://clinecenter.illinois.edu/project/human-loop-event-data-projects/SPEED.

References

  • Alagappa, M. 1995. Political Legitimacy in Southeast Asia: The Quest for Moral Authority. Stanford: Stanford University Press.

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Albrecht, H., K. Koehler, and A. Schutz. 2021. Coup agency and prospects for democracy. International Studies Quarterly 65 (4): 1052–1063.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Allen, M.A., T. Campbell, N. Hernandez, and V. Shepherd. 2023. US military deployments and the risk of coup d’état. Foreign Policy Analysis 19 (1): orac027. https://doi.org/10.1093/fpa/orac027.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Arugay, A. 2013. Saviors or spoilers? Explaining “civil society coups” among democratizing regimes. Thammasat Review 16 (1): 167–187.

    Google Scholar 

  • Associated Press International, 20 September, 2006.

  • Associated Press, 17 January, 1996.

  • Barracca, S. 2007. Military coups in the post-Cold War era: Pakistan, Ecuador and Venezuela. Third World Quarterly 28 (1): 137–154.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • BBC Summary of World Broadcasts, 14 February, 1996.

  • Beck, C.J., M. Bukovansky, E. Chenoweth, G. Lawson, S.E. Nepstad, and D.P. Ritter. 2022. On Revolutions: Unruly Politics in the Contemporary World. NY: Oxford University Press.

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Beissinger, M. 2022. The Revolutionary City: Urbanization and the Global Transformation of Rebellion. Oxford: Princeton University Press.

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Belkin, A., and E. Schofer. 2003. Toward a structural understanding of coup risk. Journal of Conflict Resolution 47 (5): 594–620.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ben Hammou, S. 2023. The varieties of civilian praetorianism: Evidence from Sudan’s coup politics. Armed Forces & Society. https://doi.org/10.1177/0095327X231155667.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Boussalis, C., A. Dukalskis, and J. Gerschewski. 2021. Why it matters what autocrats say: Assessing competing theories of propaganda. Problems of Post-Communism. https://doi.org/10.1080/10758216.2021.2012199.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Brancati, D. 2014. Pocketbook protests: Explaining the emergence of pro-democracy protests worldwide. Comparative Political Studies 47 (11): 1503–1530.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Brancati, D. 2016. Democracy Protests. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Cassell, K.J., J.A. Booth, and M.A. Seligson. 2018. Support for coups in the Americas: Mass norms and democratization. Latin American Politics and Society 60 (4): 1–25.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chacha, M., and J. Powell. 2017. Economic interdependence and post-coup democratization. Democratization 24 (5): 819–838.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chanlett-Avery, E., Dolven, B. and Mackey, W. 2015. Thailand: Background and U.S. Relations. Congressional Research Service. https://sgp.fas.org/crs/row/RL32593.pdf. Accessed 28 April 2023.

  • Chin, J.J., D.B. Carter, and J.G. Wright. 2021. The varieties of coups d’état: Introducing the Colpus dataset. International Studies Quarterly 65 (4): 1040–1051.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Constable, P. 2001. Pakistan’s predicament. Journal of Democracy 12 (1): 15–29.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • De Bruin, E. 2018. Preventing coups d’état: How counterbalancing works. Journal of Conflict Resolution 62 (7): 1433–1458.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Decalo, S. 1992. The process, prospects and constraints of democratization in Africa. African Affairs 91 (362): 7–35.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Deutsche Presse-Agentur, 19 October, 1999.

  • El-Khawas, M.A. 2009. Musharraf and Pakistan: Democracy postponed. Mediterranean Quarterly 20 (1): 94–118.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Encarnacion, O.G. 2002. Venezuela’s civil society coup. World Policy Journal 19 (2): 38–48.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fearon, J.D., and D.D. Laitin. 2003. Ethnicity, insurgency, and civil war. American Political Science Review 97 (1): 75–90.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Federal News Service, 28 October, 1991.

  • Federal News Service, 2 October, 2006.

  • Federal News Service, 20 September, 2006.

  • Federal News Service, 25 September, 2006.

  • Finer, S. 1988. The Man on Horseback: The Role of the Military in Politics, 2nd ed. Boulder, CO: Westview Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Gleditsch, K.S. 2002. Expanded trade and GDP data. Journal of Conflict Resolution 46 (5): 712–724.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gleditsch, N.P., P. Wallensteen, M. Eriksson, M. Sollenberg, and H. Strand. 2002. Armed conflict 1946–2001: A new dataset. Journal of Peace Research 39 (5): 615–637.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Goldstein, J.S. 1992. A conflict-cooperation scale for WEIS events data. Journal of Conflict Resolution 36 (2): 369–385.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Guardian.com, 20 September, 2006.

  • Holmes, A.A., and K. Koehler. 2020. Myths of military defection in Egypt and Tunisia. Mediterranean Politics 25 (1): 45–70.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hoyle, J.A. 2019. To govern, or not to govern? Opportunity and post-coup military behaviour in Egypt 2011–2014. Democratization 26 (6): 993–1010.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hyde, S.D. 2011. Catch us if you can: Election monitoring and international norm diffusion. American Journal of Political Science 55 (2): 356–369.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • IPS-Inter Press Service, 12 December, 1985.

  • IPS-Inter Press Service, 17 December, 1991.

  • IPS-Inter Press Service, 30 March, 1991.

  • IPS-Inter Press Service, 18 January, 1996.

  • IPS-Inter Press Service, 22 January, 1996.

  • IPS-Inter Press Service, 9 February, 1996.

  • IPS-Inter Press Service, 13 February, 1996.

  • Japan Economic Newswire, 18 October, 1999.

  • Johnson, T.H., R.O. Slater, and P. McGowan. 1984. Explaining African military coups d’état, 1960–1982. American Political Science Review 78 (3): 622–640.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kaifala, J. 2017. Free Slaves, Freetown, and the Sierra Leonean Civil War. New York: Palgrave Macmillan.

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Kandeh, J.D. 2004. Coups from Below: Armed Subalterns and State Power in West Africa. New York: Palgrave Macmillan.

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Kinney, D.H. 2021. Civilian coup advocacy. In The Oxford Encyclopedia of the Military in Politics, ed. W.R. Thompson and H.B. Nassif, 1–15. Oxford: Oxford University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kuehn, D. 2017. Midwives or gravediggers of democracy? The military’s impact on democratic development. Democratization 24 (5): 783–800.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lorch, J. 2017. Civil society support for military coups: Bangladesh and the Philippines. Journal of Civil Society 13 (2): 184–201.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Los Angeles Times, 27 March, 1991.

  • Maerz, S.F. and Schneider, C. 2021. Public discourse and autocratization: Infringing on autonomy, sabotaging accountability. V-Dem Working Paper no. 112.

  • Marinov, N., and H. Goemans. 2014. Coups and democracy. British Journal of Political Science 44 (4): 799–825.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Marshall, M.G, Gurr, T.R. and Jaggers, K. 2014. Polity IV project: political regime characteristics and transitions, 1800–2013. Center for Systemic Peace, http://www.systemicpeace.org/inscrdata.html.

  • Nakhoda, S. and Uzmi, Z. (1999) General Pervez Musharraf’s address to the nation. http://www.pakistani.org/pakistan/constitution/post_12oct99/musharraf_address_17oct1999.html, accessed 24 December 2020.

  • Powell, J.M. 2012. Determinants of the attempting and outcome of coups d’état. Journal of Conflict Resolution 56 (6): 1017–1040.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Powell, J., and M. Chacha. 2016. Investing in stability: Economic interdependence, coups d’état, and the capitalist peace. Journal of Peace Research 53 (4): 525–538.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Powell, J.M., and C.L. Thyne. 2011. Global instances of coups from 1950 to 2010: A new dataset. Journal of Peace Research 48 (2): 249–259.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Reyntjes, F. 1991. The winds of change. Political and constitutional evolution in Francophone Africa, 1990–1991. Journal of African Law 35 (1/2): 44–55.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rashid, A. 1999. Pakistan’s coup: Planting the seeds of democracy? Current History 98 (632): 409–414.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Roessler, P. 2011. The enemy within: Personal rule, coups, and civil war in Africa. World Politics 63 (2): 300–346.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • San Jose Mercury News, 16 October, 1999.

  • Singh, N. 2014. Seizing Power: The Strategic Logic of Military Coups. Baltimore, MD: Johns Hopkins University Press.

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Shannon, M., C.L. Thyne, A. Dugan, and S. Hayden. 2015. The international community’s reaction to coups. Foreign Policy Analysis 11 (4): 363–376.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • State Department Press Releases and Documents, 21 September, 2006.

  • Sutter, D. 1999. Legitimacy and military intervention in a democracy: Civilian government as a public good. American Journal of Economics and Sociology 58 (1): 129–143.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tansey, O. 2016. The limits of the “democratic coup” thesis: International politics and post-coup authoritarianism. Journal of Global Security Studies 1 (3): 220–234.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • The Washington Post, 3 November, 1979.

  • The Guardian, 10 June, 1986.

  • The Vancouver Sun (British Columbia), 22 November, 1991.

  • The Ottawa Citizen, 20 October, 1999.

  • The Washington Post, 13 October, 1999.

  • The New York Times, 27 March, 1991.

  • The New York Times, 4 November, 1991.

  • Thompson, M.R. 2004. Democratic Revolutions: Asia and Eastern Europe, vol. 5. London: Routledge.

    Google Scholar 

  • Thyne, C.L. 2010. Supporter of stability or agent of agitation? The effect of US foreign policy on coups in Latin America, 1960–99. Journal of Peace Research 47 (4): 449–461.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Thyne, C.L., and K. Hitch. 2020. Democratic versus authoritarian coups: The influence of external actors on states’ postcoup political trajectories. Journal of Conflict Resolution 64 (10): 1857–1884.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Thyne, C.L., and J.M. Powell. 2016. Coup d’état or coup d’autocracy? How coups impact democratization, 1950–2008. Foreign Policy Analysis 12 (2): 192–213.

    Google Scholar 

  • Thyne, C.L., J.M. Powell, S. Parrott, and E. VanMeter. 2018. Even generals need friends: How domestic and international reactions to coups influence regime survival. Journal of Conflict Resolution 62 (7): 1406–1432.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Vasquez, J.P., III., and J. Powell. 2021. Institutional arsenals for democracy? The postcoup effects of conscript militaries. Armed Forces & Society 47 (2): 298–318.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Weatherford, S.M. 1987. How does government performance influence political support? Political Behavior 9 (1): 5–28.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Xinhua General News Service, 3 November, 1979.

  • Xinhua General News Service, 4 November, 1979.

  • Yukawa, T., K. Hidaka, and K. Kushima. 2020. Coups and framing: How do militaries justify the illegal seizure of power? Democratization 27 (5): 816–835.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yukawa, T., K. Hidaka, K. Kushima, and M. Fujita. 2022. Coup d’état and a democratic signal: The connection between protests and coups after the Cold War. Journal of Peace Research 59 (6): 828–843.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zawacki, B. 2017. Thailand: Shifting Ground Between the US and a Rising China. London: ZED Books.

    Book  Google Scholar 

Download references

Funding

Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, 19K13590, Taku Yukawa.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Graduate School of Arts and Sciences, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan

    Taku Yukawa & Kaori Kushima

  2. School of Law and Politics, Kwansei Gakuin University, Hyogo, Japan

    Masafumi Fujita

  3. Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences, University of Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan

    Kaoru Hidaka

Authors
  1. Taku Yukawa
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Masafumi Fujita
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Kaoru Hidaka
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Kaori Kushima
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Kaori Kushima.

Additional information

Publisher's Note

Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

Rights and permissions

Springer Nature or its licensor (e.g. a society or other partner) holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law.

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Yukawa, T., Fujita, M., Hidaka, K. et al. Our rule is only temporary: promises of the military after a coup and their influence on domestic and international reactions. Int Polit 60, 1187–1208 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1057/s41311-023-00496-y

Download citation

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1057/s41311-023-00496-y

Keywords

Search

Navigation