Abstract
This paper studies the evolution of economic and social disparities across South America. By exploiting a novel multi-country subnational dataset, we evaluate the evolution of gross national income per capita (GNI) and the human development index (HDI) across 151 subnational regions over the 1990–2018 period. In particular, regional dynamics are evaluated through the lens of two spatial convergence models. The first model deals with the role of spatial dependence. Results indicate that for both GNI and HDI, there is an overall process of regional convergence. Furthermore, spatial dependence plays a significant role in this process. A spatial error specification suggests that spatial dependence accelerates the speed of convergence in some decades, but decelerates it in others. The second model deals with the role of spatial heterogeneity. Results indicate that for both GNI and HDI, the speed of convergence is largely heterogeneous across space and time. Moreover, economic and social disparities are characterized by multi-country spatial clusters that show both converging and diverging trends. Taken together, these results emphasize the importance of accounting for spatial dependence and heterogeneity when evaluating the dynamics of economic and social inequality in South America.
Similar content being viewed by others
Notes
Although, in this paper, we focus on the study of the convergence process in South America, there is a related stream of literature that analyses trends in well-being indicators using spatial econometric methods. Such studies consider different aspects of well-being such as educational outcomes (Delboy 2019; Cepeda-Cuervo and Núñez-Antón 2013; Fujita et al. 2021; Elias and Rey 2011), poverty (Agudelo Torres et al. 2015; Ponce et al. 2020; Álvarez-Gamboa et al. 2021) crime (Ingram and Marchesini da Costa 2019; Santos-Marquez et al. 2021) environmental degradation (de Barros and Stege 2019; Ferrer Velasco et al. 2020) to name but a few.
All data are accessible from the website of the Global Data Lab https://globaldatalab.org/
Nevertheless, as indicated by the p-value map associated with Fig. 1, many of the regions belonging to this cluster show no significant values.
References
Agudelo Torres, G., L.E. Franco Ceballos, and L.C. Franco Arbeláez. 2015. Aplicación de la econometría espacial para el análisis de la miseria en los municipios del departamento de antioquia. Semestre Económico 18 (37): 103–127.
Akçagün, P. 2017. Provincial growth in Turkey: A spatial econometric analysis. Applied Spatial Analysis and Policy 10 (2): 271–299. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12061-016-9183-5.
Álvarez-Gamboa, J., P. Cabrera-Barona, and H. Jácome-Estrella. 2021. Financial inclusion and multidimensional poverty in ecuador: A spatial approach. World Development Perspectives 22: 100311.
Anselin, L. 1995. Local indicators of spatial association-lisa. Geographical Analysis 27 (2): 93–115.
Anselin, L. 2013. Spatial Econometrics: Methods and Models, vol. 4. Springer.
Anselin, L., and S.J. Rey. 2014. Modern spatial econometrics in practice: A guide to GeoDa, GeoDaSpace and PySAL. GeoDa Press LLC.
Anselin, L., S. Sridharan, and S. Gholston. 2007. Using exploratory spatial data analysis to leverage social indicator databases: The discovery of interesting patterns. Social Indicators Research 82 (2): 287–309.
Arbia, G. 2006. Spatial Econometrics: Statistical Foundations and Application to Regional Convergence. Springer.
Ayouba, K., J. Le Gallo, and A. Vallone. 2020. Beyond gdp: An analysis of the socio-economic diversity of european regions. Applied Economics 52 (9): 1010–1029.
Barrios, C., E. Flores, and M.Á. Martínez. 2019. Convergence clubs in Latin America. Applied Economics Letters 26 (1): 16–20. https://doi.org/10.1080/13504851.2018.1433288.
Barro, R. 2015. Convergence and modernisation. The Economic Journal 125 (585): 911–942.
Barro, R., and X. Sala-i Martin. 1991. Convergence across states and regions. Brookings papers on economic activity 1991 (1): 107–182.
Barro, R., and X. Sala-i Martin. 1992. Convergence. Journal of Political Economy 100 (2): 223–251.
Barro, R., and X. Sala-i Martin. 1992. Regional growth and migration: A Japan-united states comparison. Journal of the Japanese and International Economies 6 (4): 312–346.
Barro, R.J. 1991. Economic growth in a cross section of countries. The Quarterly Journal of Economics 106 (2): 407–443.
Barro, R.J., and X. Sala-I-Martin. 2004. Economic growth. Cambridge, Mass: MIT Press.
de Barros, P.H.B., and A.L. Stege. 2019. Deforestation and human development in the brazilian agricultural frontier: An environmental kuznets curve for matopiba. Revista Brasileira de Estudos Regionais e Urbanos 13 (2): 161–182.
Brunsdon, C., A.S. Fotheringham, and M.E. Charlton. 1996. Geographically weighted regression: A method for exploring spatial nonstationarity. Geographical Analysis 28 (4): 281–298.
Brunsdon, C., A.S. Fotheringham, and M. Charlton. 1998. Spatial nonstationarity and autoregressive models. Environment and Planning A 30 (6): 957–973.
Brunsdon, C., A.S. Fotheringham, and M. Charlton. 1999. Some notes on parametric significance tests for geographically weighted regression. Journal of Regional Science 39 (3): 497–524.
Cepeda-Cuervo, E., and V. Núñez-Antón. 2013. Spatial double generalized beta regression models: Extensions and application to study quality of education in Colombia. Journal of Educational and Behavioral Statistics 38 (6): 604–628.
Delboy, M. 2019. Determinants of school attendance rate for Bolivia: A spatial econometric approach. The e-Jounal of Economics & Complexity 1: 89–112.
Dobson, S., and C. Ramlogan. 2002. Economic growth and convergence in Latin America. Journal of Development Studies 38 (6): 83–104.
Domínguez, A., and C. Mendez. 2019. Industrial productivity divergence and input-output network structures: Evidence from Japan 1973–2012. Economies 7 (2): 52.
Duncan, R., and R. Fuentes. 2006. Regional convergence in Chile: New tests, old results. Cuadernos de economía 43 (127): 81–112.
Eckey, H.F., R. Kosfeld, and M. Türck. 2007. Regional convergence in Germany: A geographically weighted regression approach. Spatial Economic Analysis 2 (1): 45–64. https://doi.org/10.1080/17421770701251905.
Elias, M., and S. Rey. 2011. Educational performance and spatial convergence in Peru. Région et Développement 33: 107–135.
Ferrer Velasco, R., M. Köthke, M. Lippe, and S. Günter. 2020. Scale and context dependency of deforestation drivers: Insights from spatial econometrics in the tropics. PloS One 15 (1): e0226830.
Fischer, M., and P. Stumpner. 2008. Income distribution dynamics and cross-region convergence in Europe. Journal of Geographical Systems 10 (2): 109–139. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10109-008-0060-x.
Fischer, M.M. 2011. A spatial Mankiw–Romer–Weil model: Theory and evidence. Annals of Regional Science 47 (2): 419–436. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00168-010-0384-6.
Fischer, M.M. 2016. Spatial Externalities and Growth in a Mankiw–Romer–Weil World: Theory and Evidence. International Regional Science Review 41 (1): 45–61. https://doi.org/10.1177/0160017616628602.
Fujita, L.D.V., I.P. Bagolin, and A. Fochezatto. 2021. Spatial distribution and dissemination of education in Brazilian municipalities. The Annals of Regional Science 66 (2): 255–277.
Galvao, A., and F. Reis Gomes. 2007. Convergence or divergence in Latin America? A time series analysis. Applied Economics 39 (11): 1353–1360.
Garrido, N., A. Marina, and D. Sotelsek. 2002. Dinámica de la distribución del producto a través de las provincias argentinas (1970–1995). Estudios de Economía Aplicada 20 (002): 123–140.
Gennaioli, N., R. La Porta, F.L. De Silanes, and A. Shleifer. 2014. Growth in regions. Journal of Economic growth 19 (3): 259–309.
Getis, A., and D.A. Griffith. 2002. Comparative spatial filtering in regression analysis. Geographical Analysis 34 (2): 130–140.
Getis, A., and J.K. Ord. 2010. The analysis of spatial association by use of distance statistics. In Perspectives on Spatial Data Analysis, Springer, pp. 127–145
González, L.M.C. 2004. Estudios de convergencia y divergencia regional en américa latina: balance y perspectivas. Investigaciones Regionales= Journal of Regional Research 5: 29–66.
Hernández, H.R., and D.I.L. Nieto. 2013. Convergencia regional en el índice de desarrollo humano en colombia. Equidad y desarrollo 20: 105–141.
Ingram, M.C., and M. Marchesini da Costa. 2019. Political geography of violence: Municipal politics and homicide in Brazil. World Development 124: 104592. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2019.06.016.
Islam, N. 1995. Growth empirics: A panel data approach. Quarterly Journal of Economics 110 (4): 1127–1170.
Jordá, V., and J.M. Sarabia. 2014. Well-Being Distribution in the Globalization Era: 30 Years of Convergence. Applied Research in Quality of Life 10 (1): 123–140. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11482-014-9304-8.
Jordá, V., and J.M. Sarabia. 2015. International Convergence in Well-Being Indicators. Social Indicators Research 120 (1): 1–27. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11205-014-0588-8.
Konya, L., and M.C. Guisan. 2008. What Does the Human Development Index Tell Us About Convergence? Applied Econometrics and Human Development 8 (1): 19–40.
Le-Gallo, J. 2019. Cross-Section Spatial Regression Models. In Handbook of Regional Science, 2nd ed., ed. M. Fischer and P. Nijkamp, 1–24. Spring-Verlag. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-36203-3_85-1.
Lessmann, C., and A. Seidel. 2017. Regional inequality, convergence, and its determinants A view from outer space. European Economic Review 92 (November 2016): 110–132. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2016.11.009.
Magalhães, A., G.J. Hewings, and C.R. Azzoni. 2005. Spatial dependence and regional convergence in brazil. Investigaciones Regionales-Journal of Regional Research 6: 5–20.
Martín-Mayoral, F., and J.Y. Zúñiga. 2013. Evolución de las disparidades en el desarrollo económico y humano de América Latina: Análisis del IDH y sus componentes. Economia Mexicana, Nueva Epoca 22 (3): 203–246.
Matos, P.V., and H.C. Faustino. 2012. Beta-convergence and sigma-convergence in corporate governance in europe. Economic Modelling 29 (6): 2198–2204.
Mazumdar, K. 2002. A note on cross-country divergence in standard of living. Applied Economics Letters 9 (2): 87–90.
Mendez, C. 2018. Beta, sigma and distributional convergence in human development? Evidence from the metropolitan regions of Bolivia. Revista Latinoamericana de Desarrollo Económico 30: 87–115.
Mendez, C., and F. Santos-Marquez. 2020. Regional convergence and spatial dependence across subnational regions of ASEAN: Evidence from satellite nighttime light data. Regional Science Policy & Practice. https://doi.org/10.1111/rsp3.12335.
Noorbakhsh, F. 2007. International Convergence or Higher Inequality in Human Development? Evidence for 1975–2002. In Advancing Development, Palgrave Macmillan UK, London, pp 149–167, https://doi.org/10.1057/9780230801462_9
Öcal, N., and J. Yildirim. 2010. Regional effects of terrorism on economic growth in Turkey: A geographically weighted regression approach. Journal of Peace Research 47 (4): 477–489. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343310364576.
Peiró-Palomino, J. 2019. Regional well-being in the OECD. The Journal of Economic Inequality 17 (2): 195–218. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10888-018-9398-6
Ponce, P., N. Aguirre-Padilla, C. Oliveira, J. Álvarez-García, MdlC. del Río-Rama, et al. 2020. The spatial externalities of tourism activities in poverty reduction. Sustainability 12 (15): 6138.
Resende, G.M. 2013. Spatial dimensions of economic growth in brazil. International Scholarly Research Notices 2013
Rey, S., and B.D. Montouri. 1999. US regional income convergence: A spatial econometric perspective. Regional Studies 33 (2): 143–156. https://doi.org/10.1080/00343409950122945.
Rey, S.J., and M.V. Janikas. 2005. Regional convergence, inequality, and space. Journal of Economic geography 5 (2): 155–176.
Rodrik, D. 2013. Unconditional convergence in manufacturing. The Quarterly Journal of Economics 128 (1): 165–204.
Royuela, V., and G.A. Garcia. 2015. Economic and social convergence in colombia. Regional Studies 49 (2): 219–239.
Santos-Marquez, F., A. Gunawan, and C. Mendez. 2021. Regional income disparities, distributional convergence, and spatial effects: Evidence from Indonesian regions 2010–2017. GeoJournal. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10708-021-10377-7.
Smits, J., and I. Permanyer. 2019. The subnational human development database. Scientific data 6: 190038.
Sutcliffe, B. 2004. World Inequality and Globalization. Oxford Review of Economic Policy 20 (1): 15–37. https://doi.org/10.1093/oxrep/grh002.
Urquiola, M., A. Lykke, E. Antelo, J.L. Evia, O. Nina, and B.I. de Desarrollo. 2000. Geography and development in Bolivia: Migration, urban and industrial concentration, welfare, and convergence: 1950-1992. Bid (Banco Interamericano de Desarrollo)
Val, M.M.S., D.G.P. de Lema, and F.A.L. Hernández. 2009. Spatial effects in the productivity convergence of spanish industrial sme’s. Spanish Journal of Finance and Accounting/Revista Española de Financiación y Contabilidad 38 (141): 13–36.
Wan, G.H. 2005. Convergence in food consumption in rural China: Evidence from household survey data. China Economic Review 16 (1): 90–102.
Zhang, H., X. Shi, T.S. Cheong, and K. Wang. 2020. Convergence of carbon emissions at the household level in China: A distribution dynamics approach. Energy Economics 92: 104956.
Acknowledgements
We would like to thank the editor and two anonymous referees for their constructive and insightful comments, which have substantially improved the contents and presentation of this article. We are also grateful to the members of the QuaRCS-network for their academic support and ideas that helped formulate this article. Felipe also thanks the participants of the Brown Bag Seminar at TU Dresden for their comments and suggestions which have greatly improved the final version of this paper.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Additional information
Publisher's Note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Mendez, C., Santos-Marquez, F. Economic and Social Disparities across Subnational Regions of South America: A Spatial Convergence Approach. Comp Econ Stud 64, 582–605 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1057/s41294-021-00181-0
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1057/s41294-021-00181-0